Pencils down! The day has finally arrived. It’s been a lengthy and exhausting awards season (stretched long due to the Sochi Olympics), but the time to has come to answer the question: "Gravity or 12 Years a Slave?". Or is it American Hustle? We'll know soon enough.

There are a few guarantees: Gravity will win Best Visual Effects and end the night with the most Oscars (though maybe not the top awards), Cate Blanchett will collect her second Academy Award (though first for a leading role), and nothing is likely to top Dame Shirley Bassey belting “Goldfinger” from last year’s ceremony. Strap in, grab a drink (see our Oscar menu here), and follow along with our sure-to-be-inaccurate predictions below!

BEST PICTURE

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Matt’s Prediction: Gravity
Alternates: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle

In my 17 years of obsessive Oscar watching, I’ve been wrong about Best Picture thrice (wrongly predicting Saving Private Ryan over Shakespeare in Love in 1998, The Aviator over Million Dollar Baby in 2004, and Brokeback Mountain over The Movie That Shall Not Be Named in 2005). I fully expect to add this year to that list. The safe money is on 12 Years a Slave, which is an incredible, powerful film that will make an admirable and worthy selection for the Academy (which is more than can be said for many of their past choices). That said, it’s very probably the closest this race has ever been in all my years of observation. Given the difficult-to-predict nature of the preferential ballot (which is also used by the Producers' Guild Awards, where 12 Years a Slave and Gravity tied this year in an almost impossible statistical outcome), I could see it going to either film. Thus, I'm going with my heart. If I didn't predict Gravity and it did win, it would not be as satisfying a victory. American Hustle likely peaked when the nominations were revealed almost two months ago, but it could prove to be the consensus choice and is the dark horse here.

Nathan’s Prediction: 12 Years a Slave

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Matt’s Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)
Alternate: Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)

While the battle for Best Picture is as close as it can get, the fight for Best Director seems less contentious. Perhaps it is because of the scale and scope of the film, the impressive technical achievement, or his past successes (Children of Men, Harry Potter & the Prisoner of Azkaban, Y Tu Mamá También), but things look to be decidedly in Cuarón’s favor for the several-year journey he took in bringing Gravity to the screen. McQueen is definitely in the mix, though.

Nathan’s Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Matt’s Prediction: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Alternates: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Best Actor has been an epic battle all year long - first for the nomination (which saw the likes of Tom Hanks and Robert Redford left in the dust) and now for the statue. I’m slightly disappointed that we’ve come to the end of this exciting road and my least favorite performance of the bunch is the de-facto frontrunner, but there is much to admire in McConaughey’s career resurgence over the last few years. He’s not a lock, though. Ejiofor is heartbreaking and commanding in the possible Best Picture winner, there is a lot of admiration for DiCaprio’s work (if not the film itself), and Bruce Dern, a popular industry veteran starring in a well-liked Best Picture nominee, also has an angle on this race.

Nathan’s Prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Matt’s Prediction: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Alternate: Amy Adams (American Hustle)

Blanchett is one of the biggest locks of the night, and deservedly so. Adams is the only nominee in this field who has never won an Oscar, and American Hustle is well liked (especially among the actors who awarded it the SAG Award for Best Ensemble), but she’ll play bridesmaid once again.

Nathan’s Prediction: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Matt’s Prediction: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Alternate: none

Leto has won virtually every award this season and no true alternative ever emerged to challenge him (a pity given the quality of performances in this category).

Nathan’s Prediction: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)

Matt’s Prediction: Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

A nail-biter to the finish. Nyong'o gives a passionate and heart-wrenching performance in her film debut; plus, she's the bright new star who has been charming the press and ruling red carpets for months. Lawrence, who won Best Actress just last year and starred in the highest grossing movie of 2013, is on top of Hollywood at the moment. Despite already being the Prom Queen, she's still likeable and easy to root for. Her performance in American Hustle utilizes all of the best qualities we've come to expect from her, but unless the Academy really REALLY loves JLaw, I think they'll be swayed by Nyong'o's work.

Nathan’s Prediction: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska

Matt’s Prediction: American Hustle
Alternate: Her

Voters often take the "original" part of this category's title to heart when selecting the winner here (think Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Talk to Her, Juno). This would seem to favor Spike Jonze's Her (which won the Golden Globe and the Writers Guild Award), and indeed that was my guess until I sat down to finalize these predictions. I think Her skews a little younger than the Academy's tastes and American Hustle is so admired that it has to win somewhere. Right?

Nathan’s Prediction: Her

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Matt’s Prediction: 12 Years a Slave
Alternate: Philomena

Likely an easy call for the film that is most in the running towards becoming America's Next Top Picture, but Philomena has a lot of fans and could be a surprise winner.

Nathan’s Prediction: 12 Years a Slave

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

Matt’s Prediction: Frozen
Alternate: The Wind Rises

Surprisingly, this will be Disney's first victory in this category (without Pixar, of course).

Nathan’s Prediction: Frozen

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine)

Matt’s Prediction: The Great Beauty
Alternates: The Hunt, The Broken Circle Breakdown

Nathan’s Prediction: The Broken Circle Breakdown

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom

Matt’s Prediction: 20 Feet from Stardom
Alternates: The Act of Killing, The Square

In the past, voters had to either attend official Academy screenings of these films or prove they had seen all five nominees before they were eligible to vote in this category. Now that voting has opened up to the entire membership, the higher profile and more enjoyable films tend to have an edge. This year, I'd give that edge to the feel-good, underdog documentary 20 Feet from Stardom (whose subject is backup singers), as I think the more somber The Act of Killing and The Square will split votes.

Nathan’s Prediction: 20 Feet from Stardom

BEST FILM EDITING

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave

Matt’s Prediction: Captain Phillips
Alternates: Gravity, 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle

Gravity certainly seems poised to take many of the technical awards it's up for, but I think Film Editing is one it will narrowly miss. Should 12 Years a Slave or American Hustle win here, I would expect them to take Best Picture at the end of the night. However, I think this is where voters have their best chance to award Captain Phillips, which, despite the lack of Director or Actor nominations, is a hugely respected film with great (and noticeable) editing.

Nathan’s Prediction: Captain Phillips

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners

Matt's Prediciton: Gravity
Alternate: none

A lock.

Nathan’s Prediction: Gravity

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave

Matt’s Prediction: The Great Gatsby
Alternates: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Her, Gravity

One of the most difficult to predict of the night. Gatsby is slightly ahead, but any of the other nominees (which are all Best Picture nominees) could easily win this.

Nathan’s Prediction: The Great Gatsby

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years a Slave

Matt’s Prediction: The Great Gatsby
Alternates: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle

Again, I think Gatsby will eke out a win over a couple of Best Picture nominees. Barely. Gatsby's designer Catherine Martin (who is director Baz Luhrmann's wife) won both design categories for Moulin Rouge! in 2001, and I suspect she'll repeat both victories this year.

Nathan’s Prediction: American Hustle

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks

Matt’s Prediction: Gravity
Alternate: Philomena

Nathan’s Prediction: Gravity

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Happy” (Despicable Me 2)
“Let It Go” (Frozen)
“The Moon Song” (Her)
“Ordinary Love” (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)

Matt’s Prediction: “Let It Go” (Frozen)
Alternates: “Ordinary Love” (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom), “Happy” (Despicable Me 2)

"Let It Go" is the big, bold, Broadway showstopper that harkens back to the classic Disney musicals of the 90s, so it is certainly the one to beat. Though "Happy" currently sits at #1 on the Billboard music charts, "The Moon Song" is well utilized within its film, and "Ordinary Love" is a passion project from some band called U2...

Nathan’s Prediction: "Let It Go" (Frozen)

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

Matt’s Prediction: Dallas Buyers Club
Alternate: Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa

Just a hunch, but I'm guessing voters will decide to check the box next to the Best Picture nominee rather than either box next to the massive flop that was The Lone Ranger or the one with "jackass" in its title - no matter how great the makeup work might've been.

Nathan’s Prediction: Dallas Buyers Club

BEST SOUND MIXING

Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor

Matt’s Prediction: Gravity
Alternate: none

Nathan’s Prediction: Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING

All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor

Matt’s Prediction: Gravity
Alternate: none

Nathan’s Prediction: Gravity

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness

Matt’s Prediction: Gravity
Alternate: none

This is the biggest lock of the night.

Nathan’s Prediction: Gravity

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Cavedigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

Matt’s Prediction: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Alternates: Facing Fear, Karama Has No Walls

Nathan’s Prediction: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?
Helium
Just Before Losing Everything
That Wasn’t Me
The Voorman Problem

Matt’s Prediction: The Voorman Problem
Alternates: Just Before Losing Everything, Helium, That Wasn't Me

Here is where office pools will be made or broken. There's no clear leader in the bunch, and who knows how many Academy members even decide to vote in this category (let alone actually watch all the nominees). I think that gives the slight edge to Voorman Problem because it's the only one here in English and it stars Bilbo himself, Martin Freeman. It's a blind guess, though.

Nathan’s Prediction: Just Before Losing Everything

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom

Matt’s Prediction: Get a Horse!
Alternate: Mr. Hublot

Despite several nominations, Get a Horse!, which played theatrically before Frozen, would actually be the first winner in this category to star Mickey Mouse.

Nathan’s Prediction: Get a Horse!