Greetings, Oscar geeks! It's been a thrilling and unpredictable year with lots of films and performances worth celebrating (see our top ten lists for the year here and here, and find out who among the nominees we'd vote for if we had a ballot). There are a handful of categories that seem locked up (congrats in advance Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons, and Patricia Arquette!), but the vast majority of these races are true nail-biters. Including Best Picture!

Hunker down, pour yourself a beverage (we'll be starting with the Lemon Thyme Gin Sparkler), and follow along with our sure-to-be-inaccurate predictions below! For more detailed analysis have a listen to our final predictions podcast or click on each category header to be taken to that page.

BEST PICTURE

American Sniper
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Matt’s Prediction: Birdman
Alternate: Boyhood

In my 18 years of Oscar prognosticating, there are have been a few close Best Picture races--Shakespeare in Love edged out Saving Private Ryan in 1998, Million Dollar Baby toppled The Aviator in 2004, just last year 12 Years a Slave claimed the prize over Gravity, etc.--but never has the race been as close as it is this year. Perhaps that's because none of this year's frontrunners ever felt like a typical Academy Award winner. Boyhood is too small and intimate, Birdman is too weird and artsy, The Grand Budapest Hotel is too idiosyncratic and stylized...but here we are hours away from knowing which film the Academy will deem the best of 2014, and your winner is almost certainly one of those first two. Boyhood, like The Social Network in 2010, dominated the first part of the season, winning virtually every critics' prize along with the Golden Globe for Best Drama. Then Birdman emerged as the true industry titan maybe it always had been with wins from the Producers Guild, the Screen Actors Guild, and the Directors Guild (a trifecta that usually equals automatic Best Picture winner, unless you're Apollo 13). Boyhood won with BAFTA. Birdman won last night at the Independent Spirit Awards. All that back and forth has had me waffling in my predictions, but in the end, though my heart may be with Boyhood, my head says it will be Birdman.

Nathan’s Prediction: Boyhood (aka the Ordinary People of the 21st century)

BEST DIRECTOR

Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)

Matt’s Prediction: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)
Alternate: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

The last two winners of this award went to directors whose films did not also win Best Picture (Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity and Ang Lee for Life of Pi), showing that voters have been able to view Best Director as its own achievement, separate from Best Picture. Although splits between the top two awards can be difficult to predict, the safe money is on Linklater. The only prize this season Linklater lost to Iñárritu was the Directors Guild Award, though that's a potentially telling loss. In either case, both directors undertook mammoth projects that challenged and enriched the art form, and whoever wins will be richly deserving.

Nathan’s Prediction: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

BEST ACTOR

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

Matt’s Prediction: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Alternates: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

Several worthy candidates missed out on making the final five here (sorry Ralph Fiennes, Jake Gyllenhaal, and David Oyelowo), though it was always going to come down to Keaton vs. Redmayne. Eddie Redmayne plays a respected real-life figure who overcame obstacles and disability to triumph, and he's already won the Golden Globe, the SAG, and the BAFTA. He checks all the usual boxes, and if you have any money on the line, place it next to his name. I have a feeling Keaton's work may have resonated with more voters (who tend to like their leading men more established/older), but Bradley Cooper could come up the middle in an upset.

Nathan’s Prediction: Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

BEST ACTRESS

Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

Matt’s Prediction: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Alternate: none

Julianne Moore will finally take home her first Academy Award - both because she's an overdue actor who has given some of the best screen performances of the last 20 years and because hers is the agreed-upon best performance by a leading actress this year.

Nathan’s Prediction: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Matt’s Prediction: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Alternate: none

A lock. While we might not be the biggest fans of Simmons' work in Whiplash (or the film itself), it's always nice to see such a hardworking, typically unrecognized character actor get his due.

Nathan’s Prediction: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Laura Dern (Wild)
Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

Matt’s Prediction: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Alternate: none

Another lock. Arquette's 12+ years of work on Boyhood has dominated the season, and, although it seemed too quiet or subtle a performance to win, a worthy contender never stepped up to challenge her frontrunner status.

Nathan’s Prediction: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler

Matt’s Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Birdman, Boyhood

A tough call. This award could be the key to which film eventually takes Best Picture, as a win for Birdman or Boyhood likely seals the deal. Voters have gravitated toward the more "original" works in this field lately (Her, Django Unchained, Midnight in Paris), and while all of the leading three candidates are certainly unique, voters might support Wes Anderson and his distinctive voice with a win here (also as a consolation prize as it seems The Grand Budapest Hotel will finish third in the top two races).

Nathan’s Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Matt’s Prediction: The Imitation Game
Alternate: Whiplash, The Theory of Everything

Whiplash has a lot of passionate supporters, and it could end the night with wins in each category in which its nominated (with the exception of Best Picture), though The Imitation Game still seems like the consensus choice here.

Nathan’s Prediction: Whiplash

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Matt’s Prediction: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Alternate: Big Hero 6

With the absence of one-time frontrunner The LEGO Movie, this turned into a real battle. How to Train Your Dragon 2 seems to have the momentum (and a win for the well-liked sequel could be a belated way to honor the original which lost this race to Toy Story 3 in 2010), but Big Hero 6 is right on its heels.

Nathan’s Prediction: How to Train Your Dragon 2

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Tangerines (Estonia)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Wild Tales (Argentina)

Matt’s Prediction: Ida
Alternates: Timbuktu, Leviathan, Wild Tales

Nathan’s Prediction: Timbuktu

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

CITIZENFOUR
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth
Virunga

Matt’s Prediction: CITIZENFOUR
Alternates: Virunga

Virunga is the underdog here, though Netflix has waged an aggressive campaign on its behalf that could result in an upset. CITIZENFOUR will be tough to beat though.

Nathan’s Prediction: Citizenfour

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken

Matt's Prediciton: Birdman
Alternate: none

Emmanuel Lubezki finally won his first Oscar in this category last year for Gravity, and he'll repeat this year for his work on Birdman.

Nathan’s Prediction: Birdman

BEST FILM EDITING

American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash

Matt’s Prediction: Whiplash
Alternates: Boyhood

A close call. Boyhood edits down 12 years of footage into a seamless narrative, but the quick cuts and rhythmic editing of Whiplash are flashier and more obvious.

Nathan’s Prediction: Whiplash

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

Matt’s Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternates: Into the Woods

It would be shocking if The Grand Budapest Hotel lost here, but I don't expect it to.

Nathan’s Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner

Matt’s Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternates: Into the Woods

Into the Woods poses more of a threat here than in Production Design, but it should be another victory for Wes Anderson's meticulously crafted Hotel. Either way, it will be the fourth Oscar for either designer.

Nathan’s Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything

Matt’s Prediction: The Theory of Everything
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Alexandre Desplat (who scored both The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game) has yet to win, and Grand Budapest could be a formidable leader in many of the crafts fields, though I predict this Oscar will narrowly go to The Theory of Everything.

Nathan’s Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Everything is Awesome” (The LEGO Movie)
“Glory” (Selma)
“Grateful” (Beyond the Lights)
“I'm Not Gonna Miss You” (Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me)
"Lost Stars" (Begin Again)

Matt’s Prediction: “Glory” (Selma)
Alternates: “I'm Not Gonna Miss You” (Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me), “Lost Stars” (Begin Again)

Sentimental voters may be swayed by the Glen Campbell documentary's song (which shows the famous country singer's struggle with Alzheimer's), but the powerful "Glory" from the under-nominated Selma should take this.

Nathan’s Prediction: “Glory” (Selma)

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy

Matt’s Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Guardians of the Galaxy, Foxcatcher

This is the best chance voters may have to reward one of the most popular films of the year, Guardians of the Galaxy, but when given the option of a Best Picture nominee here, they usually opt for that (giving The Grand Budapest Hotel the best odds). Any of the three could win though.

Nathan’s Prediction: Guardians of the Galaxy

BEST SOUND MIXING

American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash

Matt’s Prediction: American Sniper
Alternate: Birdman, Whiplash

A win for any of these five wouldn't surprise me as it's difficult to assess if there is even a frontrunner here. I don't have the guts to predict a Birdman victory (though I have a hunch it wins this), and I can't bring myself to vote for Whiplash in too many races, so that leaves me with American Sniper.

Nathan’s Prediction: American Sniper

BEST SOUND EDITING

American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken

Matt’s Prediction: American Sniper
Alternate: Interstellar, Birdman

I'm much more confident in my American Sniper prediction here. A win for Birdman could signal a sweep.

Nathan’s Prediction: American Sniper

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past

Matt’s Prediction: Interstellar
Alternate: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy

Interstellar is seen as the more "important" film of the bunch and was once considered a lock here, though that was before the film fizzled with voters and retreated from the spotlight. Apes is just as likely a winner, but it'll be close.

Nathan’s Prediction: Interstellar

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Aya
Boogaloo and Graham
Butter Lamp
Parvaneh
The Phone Call

Matt’s Prediction: Boogaloo and Graham
Alternates: The Phone Call

I had hoped actually seeing the short films would help my predictions... but that doesn't seem to be the case. The Phone Call is the clear favorite (it stars previous Oscar nominee Sally Hawkins and the voice of 2001 Best Supporting Actor winner Jim Broadbent), though Boogaloo and Graham stands out as the lightest of the lot which might swing votes in its favor for whatever small percentage of the Academy actually casts a vote here.

Nathan’s Prediction: Boogaloo and Graham

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

The Bigger Picture
The Dam Keeper
Feast
Me and My Moulton
A Single Life

Matt’s Prediction: The Dam Keeper
Alternate: Feast

A last-minute change. Feast gets my vote (and it's certainly the most widely seen of the nominees as Disney placed it in front of Big Hero 6 theatrically), but it may be too slight next to the more serious The Dam Keeper (or even The Bigger Picture, the most adult-oriented of these nominees).

Nathan’s Prediction: The Dam Keeper