2015 Oscar Nominations Reactions
/They're heeeeere! Nominations for the 88th Annual Academy Awards were announced today, and it was The Revenant that came out on top with a whopping 12 nominations. Close behind was Mad Max: Fury Road with 10 well-deserved mentions. As is always the case with Oscar, there were a handful of surprise inclusions and a few jaw-dropping snubs. So let's dig in to see how I fared with my predictions and what the CineDrunk team thinks of it all.
Have a listen to our initial reactions below, and also subscribe to CineDrunk on iTunes. Read on for the list of nominations and predictions results.
In my final predictions post, I guessed I would be about 72% accurate (after an impressive 79% correct performance last year), though that wound up being one of my worst predictions. When including all 24 categories, I ended up with an even better 80% (which was good enough for 8th place out of 3,700 participants at GoldDerby). Can't complain about that!
BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
My Predictions: 7/8. I had Brooklyn at #9.
Missed the Cut: Carol (with six total nominations in other categories), Straight Outta Compton, Inside Out
Analysis: Our second year in a row with eight nominees, none of which were entirely unexpected. Although the snub for Carol stings, it's comforting to see two sci-fi films in this lineup and three films that ultimately center on female narratives. It's likely down to The Revenant vs. Spotlight vs. The Big Short for the prize (with each having their own set of advantages and detractors).
BEST DIRECTOR
Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Adam McKay (The Big Short)
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
My Predictions: 4/5. While he was in the mix (I had him at #8), Abrahamson was a big surprise.
Missed the Cut: Ridley Scott (The Martian) was probably the biggest snub of the morning.
Analysis: In the absence of presumed frontrunner Scott, Iñárritu hopes to win a second consecutive Oscar here, and he just might, though he'll face stiff competition from Miller, McCarthy, and even McKay.
BEST ACTOR
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
My Predictions: 5/5.
Miss the Cut: Johnny Depp (Black Mass)
Analysis: The consensus five made the cut, and it's still Leo's to lose.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
My Predictions: 4/5. I thought Lawrence would miss in favor of Alicia Vikander (who was nominated in the supporting field).
Missed the Cut: Vikander and Rooney Mara made the list for Supporting Actress, but both should've been here.
Analysis: Very pleased that Rampling was able to crack the top five (after being curiously absent from the BAFTA nominations), though the better-than-expected nomination tally for Room only strengthens Brie Larson's already strong chances at the prize.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
My Predictions: 4/5. A difficult category to nail down, I had Hardy in 11th place.
Missed the Cut: Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Jacob Tremblay (Room), Michael Keaton (Spotlight), Benicio del Toro (Sicario), Michael Shannon (99 Homes), Paul Dano (Love & Mercy)
Analysis: Ruffalo or Bale could sneak in and take this if voters want to award their films with more statues, but it probably comes down to Rylance losing to Stallone.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Helen Mirren (Trumbo), Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
Analysis: Voters fell prey to category fraud by nominating leads Mara and Vikander here, and that probably gives them the leg up on the win, too. But at least Helen Mirren didn't get in for her phoned-in performance in Trumbo.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: The Hateful Eight, Sicario
Analysis: Surprising to see Quentin Tarantino miss the cut from the writers' branch for his latest film, but it's a welcome omission, says me. Spotlight is way out front for this win.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Steve Jobs
Analysis: I was thankfully incorrect in my assumption that votes for Brooklyn, Carol, and Room (three female-focused films) would cancel each other out and result in one of them missing out (like Gone Girl and Wild last year). The big snub here was Aaron Sorkin's miss for Steve Jobs (a few days after winning the Golden Globe, too). Given the fact that it showed up in virtually every category possible, The Revenant blanking here could be seen as a surprise also. The Big Short is the likely winner.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: The Peanuts Movie, The Good Dinosaur, Minions, Kahlil Gibran's The Prophet
Analysis: As has been the recent trend with this branch, they eschewed popular fare for more obscure foreign films from distributor GKids. Inside Out is the winner regardless.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Theeb (Jordan)
A War (Denmark)
My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Labyrinth of Lies (Germany), The Brand New Testament (Belgium)
Analysis: I have yet to catch up with any of these nominees, but Son of Saul remains ahead of the pack.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Going Clear: Scientology & the Prison of Belief, Best of Enemies, He Named Me Malala, Listen to Me Marlon
Analysis: Both Netflix documentaries made the cut (Simone and Winter), as did a sequel for maybe the first time in this category (The Look of Silence is a follow-up to 2013's also nominated The Act of Killing). Amy remains the frontrunner.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Bridge of Spies
Analysis: Sicario is lenser Roger Deakins' 13th nomination here. He has yet to win. Emmanuel Lubezki won in 2013 for Gravity, and again last year with Birdman. He's out front for The Revenant to make it an unprecedented three-in-a-row.
BEST FILM EDITING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: The Martian, Sicario
Analysis: Both Spotlight and The Big Short showing up in this field strengthens their Best Picture chances, though it's more likely to go to Mad Max or The Revenant.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Cinderella, Crimson Peak, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Carol
Analysis: While most were predicting a nomination for Mad Max here and in Costume Design, I was bullish on its chances in both. Happy to see it make the cut in each case. I have no preliminary thoughts on what might be ahead in this race - maybe Bridge of Spies?
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Brooklyn, Crimson Peak
Analysis: It'll be Sandy Powell vs. Sandy Powell, as I think Carol and Cinderella are the most likely victors.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: The Danish Girl, Spotlight, Inside Out
Analysis: One of my most favorite mini-surprises this morning was Sicario managing this nomination. With Star Wars, John Williams nabs his 50th career Oscar nomination (more than any other living individual, though nine shy of Walt Disney's record). Globe winner Ennio Morricone seems likely to get his first Oscar for The Hateful Eight.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Earned It" (Fifty Shades of Grey)
"Manta Ray" (Racing Extinction)
"Simple Song #3" (Youth)
"Til It Happens To You" (The Hunting Ground)
"Writing's On the Wall" (Spectre)
My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: "See You Again" (Furious 7) and lots of songs that no one has heard of or likely ever will.
Analysis: Pop stars had a good morning in this category with nominations for The Weeknd, Lady Gaga, and Sam Smith. Lady Gaga co-wrote the Hunting Ground tune with Diane Warren, who is looking for her first win after eight nominations.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window & Disappeared
The Revenant
My Predictions: 3/3.
Missed the Cut: Mr. Holmes, Black Mass
Analysis: It's probably down to the two Best Picture nominees for the win (as they each dominated the technical fields), though the voters clearly saw something they liked in the obscure Swedish film with the cumbersome title.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
My Predictions: 5/5.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: The Hateful Eight
Analysis: Most of the technical categories will likely be Mad Max vs. Star Wars with The Revenant in the hunt as well.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: The Walk, Jurassic World
Analysis: Ex Machina was the big surprise here (and with a budget of only $15 million must be one of the cheapest films to earn a spot in this category in a long time).
In the short film categories, I managed an impressive 4/5 in both Animated Short and Documentary Short, and 5/5 in Live Action Short.
The 88th Annual Academy Awards will be broadcast live on ABC on Sunday, February 28th at 7pm ET. We'll have lots more coverage of the season (including our official Oscar Menu, final predictions, and our own personal top ten lists for the year) over the next month. Stay tuned!