The nominations for the 91st Annual Academy Awards have arrived with The Favourite and Roma leading the charge with 10 nominations a piece. A Star is Born and Vice weren’t too far behind with eight mentions, followed by juggernaut Black Panther with seven. As usual, the nominations announcement was met with some cheers, jeers, and at least a few WHOA WHAT?! selections.

Have a listen to our initial thoughts on this morning's announcement below (we’re mostly already exhausted by this Oscar season!), and don't forget to subscribe to our CineDrunk podcast on iTunes. Read on for a list of the nominations and my predictions results.

I correctly predicted 92/121 of this year's nominees (about 76%), which was good enough for a 476th place finish of 8,624 participants at GoldDerby (for perspective: my placements the last five years were 12th, 1st, 8th, 4th, and 639th). So...not my best! But not my worst! Much like the Academy’s choices - not their best, but also not their worst.

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BEST PICTURE
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

My Predictions: 8/8.
Missed the Cut: First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns
Analysis: The expected top eight remained, though the battle for the statue begins now. There are a number of different scenarios that could play out as each of the three presumed frontrunners missed a key nomination this morning: Green Book and A Star is Born were each blanked in Director, while Roma (already an atypical Best Picture winner for several reasons) missed out on an expected Film Editing nomination. Given the preferential ballot used to determine this race’s winner, I’d say Roma has the slight edge as of today, but there’s still a month to go…

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Adam McKay (Vice)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

My Predictions: 3/5. Incorrectly assumed the Best Picture heat for A Star is Born and Green Book would help their directors get nominated.
Missed the Cut: Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Analysis: Cuarón netted four nominations for Roma (as producer, director, writer, and cinematographer) and looks set to earn his second Best Director Oscar after he won for 2013’s Gravity. Look out for veteran Spike Lee though, who earned an overdue first nomination in this category.

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Miss the Cut: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Analysis: Well, I guess I have to see At Eternity’s Gate now! Bale, Malek, and Cooper each have a great shot at gold, though I’m hoping voters can look past awarding biopic mimicry and give it to BCoops (who might be helped by his snub in Director, as those looking to vote for him individually can now concentrate their support of him to this field).

BEST ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Analysis: A fantastic lineup - though it’d be even stronger with Collette in the mix! Colman and Gaga are definite contenders, though it looks like the seventh time will finally be the charm for Glenn Close.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)
Analysis: Driver, Elliott, and Grant are all earning much deserved first nominations, however it appears that Mahershala Ali just might be able to pull out a second victory in this category after winning for Moonlight just two years ago.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Claire Foy (First Man), Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
Analysis: With not a one precursor notice, de Tavira, a welcome inclusion, was one of the biggest shocks of this or any Oscar nomination morning. SAG and BAFTA snubs be damned, recent awards magnet Regina King is your frontrunner here - making Amy Adams 0 for 6 in the process.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Eighth Grade, A Quiet Place, Cold War
Analysis: I’m bummed not to see Eighth Grade in this lineup, and I’m hoping The Favourite can sneak past Globe winner Green Book for the win.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Black Panther, Leave No Trace, The Death of Stalin, First Man, Crazy Rich Asians
Analysis: One of the takeaways from this year’s nominations is to never underestimate the Coen brothers, as the Ballad of Buster Scruggs support, especially in this category, was quite unexpected. Spike Lee is hoping to nab his first competitive Oscar here for BlacKkKlansman, though Barry Jenkins is also in the mix two years after winning this award for Moonlight - this time for his adaptation of If Beale Street Could Talk.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: The Grinch, Early Man
Analysis: Pixar (Incredibles 2) and Disney (Ralph Breaks the Internet) aren’t as dominant here as they have been in year’s past, so perhaps critical fave Spider-Man can repeat its Globe victory or voters can finally hand Wes Anderson an Oscar with Isle of Dogs.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Burning (South Korea), The Guilty (Denmark)
Analysis: Despite a strong and high profile lineup, Roma will take this with ease and become Mexico’s first victory in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers & Sons
RBG

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: (Former) frontrunner Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Shirkers
Analysis: As is often the case, this branch thought for themselves and forged their own path, bypassing runaway hit and presumed winner Won’t You Be My Neighbor? for more challenging fare like Hale County or Of Fathers & Sons. I’d expect Free Solo or RBG, the most widely seen and discussed films from this batch, are in the lead here.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star is Born

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Black Panther
Analysis: Foreign films make up 60% of this category - unsurprising in the case of Cold War or Roma, but downright shocking in the case of Never Look Away (a nomination I’m quite certain NO ONE saw coming). Cuarón looks locked and loaded to add another trophy to his mantle with a win for Roma here.

BEST FILM EDITING
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

My Predictions: 2/5. Ouch.
Missed the Cut: First Man, Roma, A Star is Born, Black Panther
Analysis: Unquestionably the most baffling group of nominees compiled this season. In the absence of initial leaders Roma, First Man, AND A Star is Born, I’ll throw darts and say Vice is now the frontrunner?

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Fantastic Beasts 2
Analysis: I’ll hesitantly predict The Favourite has the early lead in this race.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Bohemian Rhapsody, Fantastic Beasts 2
Analysis: Black Panther versus The Favourite for the win.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Globe winner First Man, A Quiet Place
Analysis: Justin Hurwitz’s First Man score is the most painful omission of an expected nominee this year. I guess that makes Beale Street the one to beat, though Isle of Dogs or Mary Poppins Returns seem just as likely.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"All the Stars" (Black Panther)
"I’ll Fight" (RBG)
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns)
"Shallow" (A Star is Born)
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: “Girl in the Movies” (Dumplin’), “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” (Mary Poppins Returns)
Analysis: Though it’s looking less and less like Lady Gaga is a strong contender in Best Actress, she’s almost assured her first Oscar here with a win for “Shallow”.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

My Predictions: 2/3.
Missed the Cut: Suspiria, Stan & Ollie, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther
Analysis: Vice, especially with its Best Picture nomination, is probably this category’s frontrunner.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: A Quiet Place

BEST SOUND EDITING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Mission: Impossible - Fallout, Ready Player One, A Star is Born

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Black Panther, Welcome to Marwen, Mary Poppins Returns
Analysis: The strength of Black Panther across multiple fields couldn’t quite push it to a nomination here (which I think it then would have won), but perhaps Marvel still ekes out a win for their other behemoth, Avengers: Infinity War.

In the short film categories: I managed a quite weak 2/5 in Documentary Short and 3/5 in both Animated and Live Action Short. Ah well - on to Phase Two!

The 91st Annual Academy Awards will be broadcast live on ABC on Sunday, February 24th. We'll have lots more coverage of the season (including our official Oscar Menu, final predictions, and our own personal top ten lists for the year) over the next month. Stay tuned!