The nominations for the 90th Annual Academy Awards have arrived, and The Shape of Water swam away with the most nominations at thirteen. Christopher Nolan's Dunkirk was semi-close behind with eight mentions, followed by Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri with seven. There were relatively few shocks on hand, though not many saw the (much deserved, though unexpected) embrace of Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread coming.

Have a listen to our initial thoughts on this morning's announcement below (fair morning: we spend the last ten minutes or so discussing/debating our dislike of a certain film featuring billboards), and don't forget to subscribe to our CineDrunk podcast on iTunes. Read on for a list of the nominations and predictions results.

I correctly predicted 94/122 of this year's nominees (about 77%), which was good enough for a 639th place finish of 8,702 participants at GoldDerby (for perspective: my placements the last four years were 12th, 1st, 8th, and 4th). So...not my best! But at least I'm (mostly) happy with the nominees.

BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

My Predictions: 7/9. I had Darkest Hour down at #11 and Phantom Thread at #12.
Missed the Cut: The Big Sick; I, Tonya; The Florida Project
Analysis: Another year of nine nominees left room for BAFTA favorite and Best Actor frontrunner Darkest Hour, as well as surprise late-release Phantom Thread. As the eventual winner is voted on via preferential ballot (which didn't help presumed lock La La Land last year), it stands to reason that The Shape of Water with a leading thirteen nominations is the most well-liked of the bunch and the tentative frontrunner for the win. Though it's not a done deal, and I wouldn't rule out Get Out, Lady Bird, Dunkirk, or even Three Billboards...

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards...), Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
Analysis: DGA/BAFTA/GG nominee McDonagh's Three Billboards was looking like the one to beat (though I don't think it ever would've seriously contended on a preferential ballot), so it's a pretty big blow for it to miss here. Gerwig becomes only the fifth woman nominated in this category, and Peele the fifth black director. PT Anderson is the only previous Best Director nominee, as, remarkably, this is Christopher Nolan's first nomination with this branch. Del Toro is out front for the win.

BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Miss the Cut: James Franco (The Disaster Artist), Tom Hanks (The Post)
Analysis: Franco's Golden Globe winning performance likely missed more so due to the nature of his film and its broad comedy than the recent sexual misconduct allegations leveled against him (which only surfaced within the last two days of Oscar voting). Regardless, his absence left a spot that could've been filled by two men whom the Academy has passed over multiple times over the last 15 years - Tom Hanks (last nominated for Cast Away) and Jake Gyllenhaal (only once nominated for Brokeback Mountain). Instead, it shows just how popular Denzel Washington is that he muscled in to net an eighth nomination for a film no one seems to have seen or really cared about. Gary Oldman is a near lock to take this Oscar.

BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: None, though Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) and Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) put up a good fight.
Analysis: Four of these five performances comes from a Best Picture nominee, and none is the sole nominee representing their film - so cheers to a year of quality films with female protagonists! McDormand seems like the leader here (especially after winning with SAG/Globes/Critics' Choice), though she also already has an Oscar. Perhaps voters will be more inclined to award Ronan or even Robbie (who, incidentally, are the only two female acting nominees this year under the age of 40).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missorui)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Both Call Me by Your Name gentlemen: Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg.
Analysis: Less than three months ago, Christopher Plummer wasn't even in All the Money in the World, a role that now earns him the distinction of being the oldest acting Oscar nominee ever (surpassing Titanic's Gloria Stuart). He's already the oldest acting Oscar winner having won this category for Beginners six years ago. Rockwell seems set to keep winning (after joining costar McDormand with wins at SAG/Golden Globes/Critics' Choice), though if the push back against his film and character's more problematic elements grows louder, perhaps critical fave Dafoe will take back the lead.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Holly Hunter (The Big Sick), Hong Chau (Downsizing), Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
Analysis: Though Janney has been winning all the big prizes so far and I'd still say she's the one to beat, I wouldn't count out Laurie Metcalf just yet.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: I, Tonya; Phantom Thread; The Post
Analysis: This has been one of the year's most competitive categories, and it will be a nail-biter until the final envelope is opened. Get Out and Lady Bird seem to be out front, and the corresponding Director nominations for Peele and Gerwig seem to indicate broad support, though the Three Billboards love might continue with a win here.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Any movie with "Wonder" in its title: Wonder, Wonder Woman, Wonderstruck
Analysis: Call Me by Your Name, as the only Best Picture nominee, is the clear frontrunner here, which would make James Ivory (a previous three-time Best Director nominee) the oldest Oscar winner ever at the age of 89 (unless Agnes Varda wins Best Documentary this year for Faces Places, as she is 90).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Despicable Me 3, The LEGO Batman Movie
Analysis: Coco has this all sewn up.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
The Insult (Lebanon)
Loveless (Russia)
On Body & Soul (Hungary)
The Square (Sweden)

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Golden Globe/BFCA winner In the Fade (Germany), Foxtrot (Israel)
Analysis: Unsure of which film is out front at the moment, but A Fantastic Woman has a lot of critical support and The Square won the Palme d'Or at last year's Cannes. I'd say Loveless is maybe my current prediction.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Presumed frontrunners City of Ghosts and Jane
Analysis: Another category that seems to lack a definitive leader, though Faces Places co-director Agnes Varda was just honored with an Honorary Oscar last fall, so maybe they're still in the mood to celebrate her achievements.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Call Me by Your Name, The Post
Analysis: Blade Runner 2049 DP Roger Deakins earns his 14th nomination, but he's still looking for a first win. He's likely the frontrunner this time, though he'll have to get past potential sweepers and Best Picture nominees Dunkirk and The Shape of Water.

BEST FILM EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Get Out, Blade Runner 2049
Analysis: Probably an easy win for Dunkirk, though The Shape of Water has to be a threat in most of the technical categories.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty & the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: The Post, Downsizing, Murder on the Orient Express
Analysis: The Shape of Water will probably convert one of its 13 nominations to a win here.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty & the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: The Greatest Showman; Murder on the Orient Express; I, Tonya; The Post
Analysis: Phantom Thread, as a film all about design, has to be the one to beat.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: The Post, Darkest Hour, Victoria & Abdul
Analysis: John Williams earns his 51st Oscar nomination with Star Wars: The Last Jedi (though he missed for The Post), and Radiohead's Jonny Greenwood earns his first Oscar nom with Phantom Thread (after being deemed ineligible in 2007 with There Will Be Blood). The Shape of Water is out front to earn Alexandre Desplat his second Oscar.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Mighty River" (Mudbound)
"The Mystery of Love" (Call Me by Your Name)
"Remember Me" (Coco)
"Stand Up for Something" (Marshall)
"This Is Me" (The Greatest Showman)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Either of the Beauty & the Beast songs.
Analysis: Mary J. Blige earns a second nomination this year for Mudbound to go with her Supporting Actress bid, the husband and wife team of Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez earn a second nomination with Coco after winning for "Let It Go" from Frozen, and Pasek & Paul earn a second consecutive nom with "This Is Me" after winning this category last year for "City of Stars" from La La Land. "Remember Me" is likely to take this.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder

My Predictions: 2/3.
Missed the Cut: I, Tonya; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Analysis: The team that transformed Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill will take this home for Darkest Hour.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Wonder Woman
Analysis: I'd imagine Dunkirk is ahead for both sound awards.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Wonder Woman
Analysis: The Sound Mixing and Sound Editing nominees are an exact 5/5 match for the first time since they expanded this category to a set field of five in 2006.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Best Picture players Dunkirk and The Shape of Water, Okja
Analysis: War for the Planet of the Apes is hoping to finally take home this award for the revived Apes franchise, and I suspect this is finally the year.

In the short film categories: I managed a quite weak 2/5 in Documentary Short and 3/5 in both Animated and Live Action Short. Ah well.

The 90th Annual Academy Awards will be broadcast live on ABC on Sunday, March 4th with Jimmy Kimmel returning as host. We'll have lots more coverage of the season (including our official Oscar Menu, final predictions, and our own personal top ten lists for the year) over the next month. Stay tuned!