The nominations for the 92nd Annual Academy Awards were unveiled last week with a record four films receiving double-digit nomination totals. Joker led the field with 11 citations, followed closely by The Irishman, 1917, and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood with 10 each. As usual, the nominations announcement was met with some cheers (yay Parasite!) and some jeers (too many to list, but where on Earth is JLo?!?), but the truncated award season resulted in few truly left-field surprises.

I correctly predicted 98/124 of this year's nominees (about 79%), which was good enough for a 243rd place finish of 12,613 participants at GoldDerby - top 2%! Though having finished 12th, 1st, 8th, and 4th within the past six years, it wasn’t my best showing. It also wasn’t my worst percentage, so, much like the Academy’s choices, there were some positives to balance the negatives.

Read on for a list of the nominations and my predictions results.

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BEST PICTURE
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

My Predictions: 9/9.
Missed the Cut: The Farewell, The Two Popes, Knives Out
Analysis: Another year of nine nominees meant all the top contenders were able to sneak in, though the fight for the win seems much more competitive. With less than three weeks until the ceremony, there are still five films in this lineup with a reasonably good chance at victory. The Irishman’s buzz seems to have faded and it’s unlikely the divisive Joker can win with AMPAS’s preferential ballot (though I wouldn’t count either out just yet), but World War I epic 1917, Quentin Tarantino opus Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, and South Korean phenomenon Parasite are each in great position to prevail.

BEST DIRECTOR
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Analysis: Phillips managed to snag that fifth spot (the other four men were assured nominees), depriving more worthy directors a chance here (including, it must be noted, many, many talented women). Tarantino has never won a Best Director Oscar (or Best Picture), though he’s likely more formidable in Original Screenplay. Mendes is hoping to bookend his American Beauty win from 20 years ago with a statue for his technical audacious achievement, but Director Bong is hoping the trend of non-Americans winning in this category continues.

BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas (Pain & Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Miss the Cut: Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
Analysis: The year’s most competitive acting category left many worthy performances just outside the top five, though regardless of who got in, Phoenix will cruise to the win here on his third nomination.

BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

My Predictions: 4/5. Justice for Lupita.
Missed the Cut: Lupita Nyong’o (Us), Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Analysis: Johansson finally received her first Oscar nom (and picked up a second in Supporting to boot) and Ronan earned her fourth (at just 25 years old), though each will lose to Zellweger, who will win her second Oscar after the Supporting Actress statue she picked up for 2003’s Cold Mountain.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Song Kang-ho (Parasite)
Analysis: Despite years of consistently great work (including 2013’s Captain Phillips), this is Tom Hanks’ first nomination since 2000’s Cast Away! Brad Pitt will add his first acting Oscar to the trophy he picked up as one of the producers of 2013’s Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

My Predictions: 4/5. JUSTICE FOR JLO.
Missed the Cut: Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell)
Analysis: Very happy to see breakout Pugh among this lineup, though annoyed that Hustlers was not the “highbrow” Academy’s cup of tea, thus depriving Lopez of a deserved spot among these five. Industry and Academy fave Laura Dern should already be prepping her victory speech.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: The Farewell, Booksmart, Pain & Glory
Analysis: The inclusion of 1917, a technical wonder to be sure, speaks to its overall strength as a Best Picture contender. Parasite might be able to pull out a win here if it’s as beloved by the Academy as it is critics, though more likely Tarantino collects his third win in this category with …Hollywood.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Analysis: The Irishman might be the early frontrunner as this seems the most likely place to award Scorsese’s film, but Greta Gerwig’s snub in Best Director could rally support for a much deserved Little Women win in this race.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Frozen II
Analysis: No sequel has been able to win in this category (and Frozen II’s absence was certainly one of the biggest surprises last week), but Toy Story 4 is hoping to change that.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Atlantics (Senegal), Beanpole (Russia)
Analysis: Parasite is somehow the very first nominee in this category from South Korea (Oscar has been averse to Asian cinema in general other than Japan for far too long), but it is at least assured one trophy from its six nominations with a win here.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Apollo 11, One Child Nation
Analysis: Continuing the trend of snubbing the presumed frontrunner (Apollo 11 this year, Won’t You Be My Neighbor? and Jane the previous two years), this branch not only nominated five films with female directors/co-directors, but four foreign language films (one of which, Honeyland, made history with a nomination in both Documentary and International Feature Film)! As the most widely seen (and first feature from the Obama’s production company), American Factory likely has the edge for the win.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Ford v Ferrari
Analysis: Roger Deakins finally won his first Oscar a few years back for Blade Runner 2049, and he will undoubtedly nab a second with his work on 1917.

BEST FILM EDITING
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, 1917, Marriage Story
Analysis: Tough to know which film is out front in this race, but Parasite’s inclusion was the most welcome on nomination morning.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Joker, The Two Popes
Analysis: The only tech category the over-performing Joker missed out on, thankfully. Much like Film Editing, it’s tough to gauge which film is currently leading, though Parasite’s nomination is richly, richly earned.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Rocketman, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey
Analysis: Some puzzling inclusions (Irishman? Joker?) left some flashy and deserving work on the sidelines, though it’s likely the March sisters of Little Women vs the Hollywood inhabitants of the late 1960’s battling for the prize.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Jojo Rabbit, Us, Pain & Glory
Analysis: John Williams inches closer to Walt Disney’s record (59) with his 52nd nomination here for the latest Star Wars saga. While Joker is likely to make Hildur Gu∂nadóttir just the fourth female composer to win a Score Oscar, Thomas Newman (1917) is hoping this nomination (his 14th) nets him his first win [against his cousin Randy (Marriage Story), no less].

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away" (Toy Story 4)
"(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman)
"I’m Standing With You" (Breakthrough)
"Into the Unknown" (Frozen II)
"Stand Up" (Harriet)

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: “Spirit” (The Lion King), “Glasgow (No Place Like Home)” (Wild Rose)
Analysis: One day Beyoncé will be an Oscar nominee, but apparently not this year…

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Rocketman, Dolemite Is My Name, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Analysis: I’d wager Bombshell is certainly the one to beat here.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Rocketman, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST SOUND EDITING
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Rocketman, Avengers: Endgame

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Alita: Battle Angel, Gemini Man

As for the short film categories, I managed 4/5 in Animated Short and 3/5 in both Documentary and Live Action Short. Not too shabby!

On to Phase Two!

The 92nd Annual Academy Awards will be broadcast live on ABC on Sunday, February 9th. We'll have lots more coverage of the season (including our official Oscar Menu, final predictions, and our own personal top ten lists for the year) over the next few weeks, so stay tuned!