Final 94th Oscars Predictions
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Last year's Best Actress and Best Director winners.
The time has finally come to open some envelopes and find out who will take home Oscars at tonight’s presentation of the 94th Annual Academy Awards. It’s been a long, strange season that has boiled down to two very different films directed by women and released via a streaming service duking it out for Best Picture with Netflix’s The Power of the Dog vs Apple TV+’s CODA. One is the critics’ fave with the most nominations of any of this year’s films (Power of the Dog has an even dozen mentions), while the other is tied as the least nominated Best Picture nominee this year (CODA is hoping to become the first Best Pic winner with fewer than 4 nominations since Grand Hotel in 1932). Either way, a streamer will take the top prize for the first time, cementing an industry shift several years in the making.
Last year’s Oscars, a muted and awkward affair, saw Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland take the highest honor along with trophies for Zhao’s direction and Frances McDormand’s third Best Actress statue. Academy producers then made the bizarre choice to push Best Actor to the final award, assuming a posthumous honor for Chadwick Boseman only to be surprised with an absent Anthony Hopkins victory to close the show. While this year’s shindig promises to be a return to a bigger and grander ceremony, the Academy has also made several perplexing choices - punting eight of the categories to be handed out during a non-televised pre-show is unprecedented and insulting, not to mention a truly strange and desperate attempt to court younger audiences to take time on the broadcast to shout out the results of a Twitter poll asking for #OscarsFanFavorite and #OscarsCheerMoment. After going hostless for the past several years, the trio of Regina Hall, Amy Schumer, and Wanda Sykes will handle hosting duties.
As ever, there’s a healthy mix of sure-things (Dune will net a handful of technical awards, likely being the most awarded film of the year; 3 of the acting categories feel locked up), tight battles (Billie Eilish or Lin-Manuel Miranda for Best Song?), and wide-open question marks (Best Editing is a true 5-way race and one of the most exciting categories this year - too bad it’s one of the eight that will be awarded off screen before the ceremony even officially begins). We’re Team Power of the Dog at CineMunch and are hoping Jane Campion’s masterpiece (not a word we throw around lightly) takes wins wherever it can!
So settle in, mix yourself a cocktail or two (in lieu of our traditional Oscar Menu, we’ll be sipping chocolate martinis), and follow along with our predictions below!
BEST PICTURE
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Matt’s Prediction: CODA
Alternate: The Power of the Dog
Momentum is a funny thing! Up until a few weeks ago, The Power of the Dog looked like it had this win all wrapped up, especially after nabbing a field-leading 12 nominations. It remains the only of this year’s films to check all the boxes that Oscar nerds look to when making our predictions - nominations for directing, screenwriting, acting, editing, and major notices all season long at every single Oscar precursor. It won Best Picture with the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, the all-important Director’s Guild, and the Critics Choice. On paper, Jane Campion’s revisionist Western is unbeatable. And yet here we are! CODA made a splash at Sundance 2021 (a full 14 months ago), was picked up by Apple TV+ for a record $25 million, and then debuted on the streaming service to fairly muted enthusiasm back in August. The indie hung around through the fall while other films were positioned as frontrunners (Belfast) or challengers to Dog (briefly Don’t Look Up and West Side Story), and then really hit its stride after winning the Best Ensemble award at the Screen Actors Guild Awards (a prize that has foreshadowed upset Oscar wins for films like Crash [shudder] and Spotlight). CODA then won with the Writers Guild (where Power of the Dog was not eligible) and, most crucially as they’re the only other awards body to use the preferential ballot, with the Producers Guild. The win that tipped the scales for me was its win for Adapted Screenplay at the BAFTAs against heavy competition, from a more international voting membership, and with a group that barely nominated the film. THAT shows how strong the CODA wave is and why it’s my prediction for Best Picture, despite the NUMEROUS stats that will need to be broken for it to accomplish its underdog victory. But it’s also not a sure-thing, and I’m very, very, very strongly rooting for Power of the Dog to bring it home in the end!
Matt’s Personal Rankings: 1) The Power of the Dog, 2) Drive My Car, 3) Dune, 4) King Richard, 5) Licorice Pizza, 6) West Side Story, 7) CODA, 8) Nightmare Alley, 9) Belfast, 10) Don’t Look Up
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Worst Person in the World; tick, tick…BOOM!
Nathan’s Prediction: The Power of the Dog
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Matt’s Prediction: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Alternate: Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Somehow this is the only one of Power of the Dog’s 12 nominations that it feels guaranteed to win - an odd outcome if it only wins this category, something that hasn’t happened since Mike Nichols won for 1967’s The Graduate. Campion will be just the third woman to win this category (a year after Chloé Zhao became the second), beating Spielberg in a reverse outcome of their 1993 match-up when she lost for The Piano to Spielberg’s Schindler’s List.
Should Win: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Joachim Trier (The Worst Person in the World)
Nathan’s Prediction: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Matt’s Prediction: Will Smith (King Richard)
Alternates: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!)
The Will Smith coronation is one of the night’s biggest locks.
Should Win: Will Smith (King Richard)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car)
Nathan’s Prediction: Will Smith (King Richard)
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Matt’s Prediction: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Alternates: Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Though not quite the free-for-all of last year’s contest, this category is once again pretty thrilling and may come down to the wire. Kristen Stewart was once the runaway favorite (and she certainly swept the critics’ awards), then Kidman became the one to beat (and won the Golden Globe), and then it looked like Olivia Colman might nab a second Oscar three years after her first. Chastain ended up taking the SAG award (and a Critics Choice win soon followed) and it felt like we finally had a consensus frontrunner. Though her film isn’t beloved (not necessarily a hurdle when none of these performances come from a Best Picture nominee), she still has all the elements to make a convincing winner — a well respected veteran on her third nomination without a win, playing a larger-than-life real person, and her film seems likely to take another award (Makeup & Hairstyling). The safe money is on Chastain, but a last-minute surge in buzz for Penelope Cruz might have been just enough for her to surprise here.
Should Win: Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)
Nathan’s Prediction: Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Matt’s Prediction: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Alternate: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Even if CODA falls short in Best Picture, Kotsur has this win all wrapped up.
Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Anders Danielsen Lie (The Worst Person in the World)
Nathan’s Prediction: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Matt’s Prediction: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Alternates: Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Like Kotsur and Will Smith, DeBose has this in the bag - 61 years after Rita Moreno won this award for the original West Side Story film adaptation.
Should Win: Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Ruth Negga (Passing)
Nathan’s Prediction: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
Matt’s Prediction: Belfast
Alternates: Licorice Pizza, Don’t Look Up, The Worst Person in the World, King Richard
Both writing awards have become toss-ups late in the fourth quarter (or whatever sports analogy might work here). What initially felt like a two-way race between Academy mainstays looking for a first win (Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza on his ninth nom vs Kenneth Branagh for Belfast with his eighth nom), got an injection of uncertainty when Don’t Look Up won the Writers Guild Award. It’s generally wisest to go with whichever film is strongest in the Best Picture category, but it’s very difficult to suss out which of these that is. I’ll narrowly say Belfast takes it, but wouldn’t be too shocked by any outcome.
Should Win: The Worst Person in the World
Should’ve Been Nominated: C’mon C’mon
Nathan’s Prediction: Belfast
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Matt’s Prediction: CODA
Alternate: The Power of the Dog
CODA vs Power of the Dog again, and whichever of the two wins here early in the night has to then be considered the likely Best Picture victor. A nail-biter!
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should’ve Been Nominated: I’m Your Man
Nathan’s Prediction: CODA
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs the Machines
Raya & the Last Dragon
Matt’s Prediction: Encanto
Alternates: The Mitchells vs the Machines, Flee
When in doubt in this category, default to Disney (though they represent 3/5ths of the field this year). Encanto and its soundtrack have been ubiquitous over the past few months, likely pushing it past the competition.
Should Win: Flee
Nathan’s Prediction: Flee
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Matt’s Prediction: Drive My Car
Alternate: The Worst Person in the World
With major nominations for Picture, Director, and Screenplay, Drive My Car is the clear film to beat here.
Should Win: The Worst Person in the World
Nathan’s Prediction: Drive My Car
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul (…or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Writing With Fire
Matt’s Prediction: Summer of Soul
Alternates: Flee, Attica
The documentary branch of the Academy has snubbed the supposed frontrunner in this category many years running, but now that it got past the nominations stage, Summer of Soul is definitely out front. It’d be wonderful to see Flee convert any of its three noms into a win, but alas, that appears unlikely.
Should Win: abstain
Nathan’s Prediction: Summer of Soul
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Matt's Prediciton: The Power of the Dog
Alternate: Dune
There are only a few categories where Dune has actual competition to prevent it from sweeping the technical awards. Power of the Dog’s lenser Ari Wegner is looking to become the first female DP to win a Cinematography Oscar (she’s just the second ever nominated), but I suspect the alien sands of Dune push it over the top for cinematographer Greig Fraser. MORNING OF EDIT: Changing my prediction to Power of the Dog!
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should’ve Been Nominated: Honestly, this fivesome is pretty perfect.
Nathan’s Prediction: Dune
BEST FILM EDITING
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…BOOM!
Matt’s Prediction: tick, tick…BOOM!
Alternates: Dune, King Richard, The Power of the Dog
Another rare category where truly any of the five could pull it out, so I’ll play it safe and stick with the film likely to take home a handful of other tech awards. MORNING OF EDIT: Throwing caution to the wind and saying tick, tick…BOOM! follows in the footsteps of 2011’s The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo in besting 4 Best Picture nominees to nab this award. Just a hunch.
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should’ve Been Nominated: West Side Story
Nathan’s Prediction: King Richard
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Matt’s Prediction: Dune
Alternate: Nightmare Alley
While I’d say Dune is the one to beat once again, I’d imagine voters will tire of checking off the same film again and again as they work their way down the ballot, helping Nightmare Alley take a win here. MORNING OF EDIT: Just kidding, changing back to Dune here!
Should Win: Dune
Should’ve Been Nominated: The French Dispatch
Nathan’s Prediction: Nightmare Alley
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Matt’s Prediction: Cruella
Alternates: Dune, West Side Story
Cruella’s trash dress alone might’ve given it the edge, but it also helps that the film centers costume design and fashion so prominently.
Should Win: Cruella
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Green Knight
Nathan’s Prediction: Cruella
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Matt’s Prediction: Dune
Alternates: Encanto, The Power of the Dog
Hans Zimmer should finally add to the Oscar he won in this category for The Lion King back in 1994 when he wins for Dune. I’m not counting out Encanto or Jonny Greenwood’s haunting Power of the Dog score though.
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should’ve Been Nominated: Spencer
Nathan’s Prediction: The Power of the Dog
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Be Alive" (King Richard)
"Dos Oruguitas" (Encanto)
"Down to Joy" (Belfast)
"No Time to Die" (No Time to Die)
"Somehow You Do" (Four Good Days)
Matt’s Prediction: “No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
Alternate: “Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)
After winning this award for the previous two Bond themes (Adele’s “Skyfall” and Sam Smith’s “Writing’s on the Wall”), “No Time to Die” is hoping to continue the trend. It’d be a super deserving winner in my book (and songwriters and siblings Billie Eilish and Finneas are bonafide awards magnets), but the song was first released over two years ago - it even won a Grammy a full year ago! Voters looking for something fresher hardly need to look far when Encanto is right there (and at the top of the Billboard charts). Disney submitted “Dos Oruguitas” for consideration before the film was released, explaining why the earworm and unexpected behemoth “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” is not listed here. The song’s composer is also non-other than Lin-Manuel Miranda, who had a stellar 2021 (with In the Heights, Encanto, and his directorial debut in tick, tick…BOOM!) and just needs the Oscar to complete his EGOT. I’ll stubbornly stick with the Bond tune, but it’s one of the tightest races of the night, so I could easily see either winning. Sorry, Beyoncé - next time!
Should Win: “No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
Should’ve Been Nominated: “Surface Pressure” (Encanto)
Nathan’s Prediction: “Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Matt’s Prediction: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Alternates: Cruella, Dune
Should Win: House of Gucci
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Green Knight
Nathan’s Prediction: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
BEST SOUND
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Matt’s Prediction: Dune
Alternate: West Side Story
Should Win: Dune
Should’ve Been Nominated: tick, tick…BOOM!
Nathan’s Prediction: West Side Story
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi & the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Matt’s Prediction: Dune
Alternate: none
Should Win: Dune
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Green Knight
Nathan’s Prediction: Dune
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ala Kachuu - Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Matt’s Prediction: The Long Goodbye
Alternates: Please Hold, Ala Kachuu - Take and Run
Nathan’s Prediction: The Long Goodbye
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Matt’s Prediction: Robin Robin
Alternates: The Windshield Wiper, Bestia
Nathan’s Prediction: Bestia
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Matt’s Prediction: Audible
Alternates: The Queen of Basketball, Lead Me Home
Nathan’s Prediction: When We Were Bullies
The 94th Annual Academy Awards will air 15 categories live on ABC beginning at 8pm ET.
