Final 2015 Oscar Predictions
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The time has come, Oscar geeks! Pencils down, ball gowns on! 2015 was a great year in film (see our top ten lists for the year here), and we're excited to put a bow on it and celebrate with the 88th Annual Academy Awards tonight on ABC. It has been one truly exciting and unpredictable Oscar season with lots of films and performances worthy of attention... and some not (find out who among the nominees we'd vote for if we had a ballot). As usual, there are a few sure things (congrats, Leo!) and some tight battles (Costume Design, the Sound categories), but the most thrilling race of all will be decided with the final envelope, as this just might be the craziest Best Picture race I've seen in my almost 20 years of prognosticating!
Hunker down, pour yourself a beverage (we'll be starting with a glass of Scotchlight), and follow along with our sure-to-be-inaccurate predictions below! For more detailed analysis, have a listen to our final predictions podcast or, for full rankings, click on each category header below.
BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Matt’s Prediction: The Revenant
Alternates: The Big Short, Spotlight
I wrote last year of how close the race between Birdman and Boyhood was, though Birdman had won most of the industry awards so it wasn't a difficult prediction to make. This year? I'm totally stumped. The Big Short won the Producers Guild award (which has the same preferential ballot the Academy does), then Spotlight won the Screen Actors Guild award, and finally The Revenant won the Directors Guild award (making Alejandro G. Iñárritu the first director to win that award twice consecutively). Having won the British Academy award, momentum seems to have shifted in The Revenant's favor, though no director in history has ever directed back-to-back Best Picture winners. Furthermore, no film since Titanic has won without a Screenplay nomination, and no film since Braveheart has won without a SAG Best Ensemble nomination - two key nominations The Revenant is lacking. Both The Big Short and Spotlight are less divisive films than The Revenant (which will help them on a preferential ballot where voters rank their choices), though both are likely to only win one other award - and no Best Picture winner since The Greatest Show on Earth in 1952 has taken home just two statues. So I'm flummoxed. In the end, I think the grand scale of The Revenant and its strength in other races this evening makes it the most likely Best Picture winner. But I'm not happy about it and hope to be wrong.
Nathan’s Prediction: Spotlight
BEST DIRECTOR
Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Adam McKay (The Big Short)
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Matt’s Prediction: Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant)
Alternate: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Although McCarthy and McKay's films are in contention for the top award, their achievements are literally dwarfed next to Iñárritu and Miller's in this category. Safe money says Iñárritu becomes the first to win two in a row for Best Director since 1950, but there's a solid case to be made for veteran George Miller, who might be the sentimental favorite.
Nathan’s Prediction: Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant)
BEST ACTOR
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Matt’s Prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Alternates: none
The narrative that Leo is "due" took hold early in the season (or, really, years ago according to the internet), and, at the old, old age of 41, he will finally take home his first Oscar. In a rare weak year for this category, no solid competition ever emerged to challenge him. One of the biggest locks of the night.
Nathan’s Prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Matt’s Prediction: Brie Larson (Room)
Alternate: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Unlike the leading men, this category was stacked this year and loaded with quality performances from quality films (except you, Jennifer Lawrence, but we'll give you a pass this time). Despite the heavy competition, Brie Larson has run away with the season and has yet to lose a prize to any of the other deserving ladies. That will include the Oscar.
Nathan’s Prediction: Brie Larson (Room)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Matt’s Prediction: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Alternate: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
If voters are truly over the moon about any of the three Best Picture frontrunners, we could see a surprise upset from Bale, Hardy, or Ruffalo. However, this is Stallone's to lose. The comeback, underdog nature of his career makes him easy to root for (and the industry agrees based on the standing ovations he received after winning the Golden Globe and the BFCA), and it will be a nice moment to see him win for a character he created nearly 40 years ago (whose film won Best Picture, though he lost Best Actor). The spoiler here is Rylance, a well-regarded actor who recently won the BAFTA.
Nathan’s Prediction: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Matt’s Prediction: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Alternate: Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Mara and Vikander may lose votes from those who oppose their placements in this category (for what are quite clearly leading roles), but the overall breakout year Vikander had gives her an edge. Plus, Supporting Actress often goes to the current 'pretty, young thing' who excites voters but maybe hasn't entirely proven herself yet - a role Vikander fits well. Look out for Winslet though, who won the Globe and BAFTA, and could benefit from nostalgic Academy members who want to see Titanic stars Kate and Leo win on the same night (or is that just me?).
Nathan’s Prediction: Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Matt’s Prediction: Spotlight
Alternate: none?
Regardless of how the Best Picture race turns out, Spotlight seems assured a victory here. There are cases to be made for each of the other nominees, though it's tough to ascertain which would be the alternate.
Nathan’s Prediction: Spotlight
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
Matt’s Prediction: The Big Short
Alternate: Room
Similar to Spotlight in Original Screenplay, The Big Short is very likely to win this race regardless of which film wins Best Picture.
Nathan’s Prediction: Room
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Matt’s Prediction: Inside Out
Alternate: none
A lock. This will be Pixar's eighth win in this category since it was created in 2001.
Nathan’s Prediction: Inside Out
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Theeb (Jordan)
A War (Denmark)
Matt’s Prediction: Son of Saul
Alternates: Mustang
An easy prediction, though Mustang could be the upset of the night.
Nathan’s Prediction: Son of Saul
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
Matt’s Prediction: Amy
Alternates: Cartel Land, The Look of Silence
It was a strong year for documentaries (which it seems is the norm these days), though Amy has steamrolled the competition.
Nathan’s Prediction: Amy
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
Matt's Prediciton: The Revenant
Alternate: none?
Emmanuel Lubezki finally won his first Oscar in this category two years ago for Gravity and followed that up with a repeat win last year for Birdman. He'll make history with a third consecutive win tonight for The Revenant.
Nathan’s Prediction: The Revenant
BEST FILM EDITING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Matt’s Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Alternates: The Big Short, The Revenant
A win for The Big Short or The Revenant may signal an upcoming Best Picture victory, though Mad Max looks to be the one to beat (which will give Margaret Sixel, director George Miller's wife, her first Oscar).
Nathan’s Prediction: The Revenant
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Matt’s Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Alternates: The Revenant
Mad Max is very competitive in many categories, but could prove divisive enough that it loses most or even all of them. Production Design is the most likely win from its ten nominations. If The Revenant takes this, it could be a sign that we're in for a Revenant sweep.
Nathan’s Prediction: The Revenant
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Matt’s Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Alternates: Cinderella, The Danish Girl, Carol, The Revenant
The one field this evening where truly any of the five nominees could win. I think that may give Mad Max the edge as its supporters are so loyal and so vocal, but a month ago I wasn't even predicting it to be nominated here, so I'm not confident about this prediction at all. It recently won with BAFTA and with the Costume Designers Guild, so that's what has me leaning in that direction, though Cinderella seems a safer choice and my gut is telling me The Danish Girl. A toss-up.
Nathan’s Prediction: Carol
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Matt’s Prediction: The Hateful Eight
Alternate: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Sicario, Carol
Although the film was not widely embraced, legendary composer Ennio Morricone will likely net his first competitive Oscar for The Hateful Eight. Unless voters feel the nostalgic pull of the force and award industry titan John Williams a sixth Oscar on his 50th nomination.
Nathan’s Prediction: The Hateful Eight
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Earned It" (Fifty Shades of Grey)
"Manta Ray" (Racing Extinction)
"Simple Song #3" (Youth)
"Til It Happens To You" (The Hunting Ground)
"Writing's On the Wall" (Spectre)
Matt’s Prediction: “Til It Happens To You” (The Hunting Ground)
Alternates: “Writing's On the Wall” (Spectre), “Earned It” (Fifty Shades of Grey)
No one seems to like the Sam Smith penned song from Spectre, but that didn't stop it from winning the Globe or netting a nomination here. Everyone seems to like "Earned It," though few are predicting it to triumph. But Lady Gaga has campaigned hard enough for her song from campus rape documentary The Hunting Ground, which she co-wrote with eight-time nominee Diane Warren, to give "Til It Happens To You" the edge. Each of these songs has the dubious distinction of being the sole nominee from their film.
Nathan’s Prediction: “Til It Happens To You” (The Hunting Ground)
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window & Disappeared
The Revenant
Matt’s Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Alternate: The Revenant
Mad Max and The Revenant are squaring off in all of the same technical fields and will likely split the victories between them. It's a close race in many of those categories, this one included.
Nathan’s Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST SOUND MIXING
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Matt’s Prediction: The Revenant
Alternate: Mad Max: Fury Road
Nathan’s Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST SOUND EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Matt’s Prediction: The Revenant
Alternate: Mad Max: Fury Road
Most voters don't actually know the difference between Sound Mixing (the balance of all aural elements on a film) and Sound Editing (the sounds created for a film), so these categories can be difficult to predict. Though it's not uncommon for the two sound awards to go to different films, it's usually best to predict the same film takes both. I don't see Mad Max taking home more trophies than The Revenant, so I'm predicting the latter wins these.
Nathan’s Prediction: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Matt’s Prediction: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alternate: The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars has to win something, right? Maybe not, but I suspect it'll narrowly succeed in this race over the bear attack of The Revenant and the practical effects work on Mad Max: Fury Road.
Nathan’s Prediction: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Shok
Stutterer
Matt’s Prediction: Stutterer
Alternates: Shok
Many are predicting either Shok or Ave Maria (which I think is the least impressive of the five), though I think the sweetly romantic Stutterer edges out the more somber Shok. Everything Will Be Okay is probably the best of the five though and not one to be ruled out.
Nathan’s Prediction: Ave Maria
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay's Super Team
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow
Matt’s Prediction: Sanjay's Super Team
Alternates: World of Tomorrow, Bear Story
Pixar has only won this category three times, so Sanjay's Super Team may not be the frontrunner I assume it to be. If critics were voting, World of Tomorrow would take this, though its rather crude animation style may prove off-putting to voters who actually cast a ballot in this category.
Nathan’s Prediction: World of Tomorrow
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
Matt’s Prediction: Body Team 12
Alternates: Chau, Claude Lanzmann, A Girl in the River
Nathan’s Prediction: Body Team 12
