The nominations for the 93rd Annual Academy Awards were (finally) unveiled March 15th with David Fincher’s Mank leading the way with 10 nominations. In a true sign of spreading the wealth, the next most nominated films are Mank’s fellow Best Picture contenders (The Father, Judas & the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7) all nabbing 6 mentions, with the final top category nominee (Promising Young Woman) netting 5. Though this season has been far from business as usual given the ongoing pandemic, the nominations announcement featured the typical highs (yay “Husavik”!), lows (how does anyone pass on nominating Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods?!), and head-scratchers (wait, who is the lead of Judas & the Black Messiah if both titular roles are nominated in supporting?).

I correctly predicted 95/118 of this year's nominees (about 80.5%), which was good enough for a 106th place finish of 9,329 participants at GoldDerby - top 1.1%! Though having finished 12th, 1st, 8th, and 4th in years past, it wasn’t my best showing. It also wasn’t my worst percentage, so, much like the Academy’s choices, there were some positives to balance the negatives.

Read on for a list of the nominations and my predictions results.

BEST PICTURE
The Father
Judas & the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

My Predictions: 6/8 (had Judas at #9 and Father at #10)
Missed the Cut: One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World
Analysis: Next year this category will return to a set lineup of 10, so this was the last instance of a sliding scale resulting in as few as 5 Best Picture nominees or as many as 10 (since this rule adjustment in 2011, we’ve only ever seen a roster of 8 or 9 nominees, including the 8 that made the cut this year). Though it doesn’t fit the mold of a “traditional” winner in many ways, Chloé Zhao’s Nomadland is the frontrunner here - cemented by wins with both the Critics Choice and Golden Globe voters. Minari, Promising Young Woman, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 each have a path to the podium, though it’s Nomadland’s to lose.

BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
David Fincher (Mank)
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Regina King (One Night in Miami)
Analysis: Zhao and Fennell become just the 6th and 7th women nominated in this category, and Zhao will (very likely) be just the second female director in history to win (after Kathryn Bigelow won for 2009’s The Hurt Locker). Vinterberg joins a small list of directors since the Best Picture roster was expanded in 2009 to be nominated here without their film also receiving recognition in Picture (Bennett Miller for 2014’s Foxcatcher and Pawel Pawlikowski for 2018’s Cold War are the others).

BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari)

My Predictions: 5/5.
Miss the Cut: Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
Analysis: A stacked field filled with titanic performances (plus a miscast Gary Oldman), but the late Chadwick Boseman will handily take this.

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Yeri Han (Minari)
Analysis: Though these five jumped to the front of the pack early in the season (Day cementing her status in this lineup after that surprising Globes win), the race for the statue is another ballgame. Any of these five could win, which brings some much welcomed suspense to one of the acting categories for the first time in several years.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas & the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas & the Black Messiah)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods), Alan Kim (Minari)
Analysis: Stanfield’s nomination was the biggest shock of nominations morning - not that he’s undeserving or wasn’t in the awards conversation, but because he was campaigned in the Best Actor category to avoid competition with costar Kaluuya (and because, you know, he’s the co-lead of his film). Voters can vote for performers in whatever category they’d like though, and enough thought Stanfield was supporting (and may’ve voted for Kaluuya in lead). Stanfield’s inclusion may siphon some votes from Kaluuya, possibly setting up an upset win for Cohen, but Kaluuya is comfortably still the frontrunner here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Olivia Colman (The Father)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian), Helena Zengel (News of the World), Dominique Fishback (Judas & the Black Messiah), Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)
Analysis: The year’s most unpredictable category heading into the nominations somehow resulted in exactly the five I was expecting, though there’s still quite a competition heating up for the win. Remarkably, this is Glenn Close’s eighth nomination - if she loses yet again, she’ll tie Peter O’Toole’s record as the most nominated actors to never have won with Oscar. Both comedic performances and performances in languages other than English don’t often win (especially in the supporting categories), so it’s further proof of what an anomaly this year has been that Maria Bakalova and Yuh-jung Youn are the most likely victors.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Judas & the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Mank, Soul
Analysis: Despite leading the nominations, Mank’s absence here (especially as a film about a screenwriter writing one of the most lauded and influential screenplays in Hollywood history) signals it doesn’t have the overall support to be a true player for the major Oscar prizes. While Aaron Sorkin was passed over in Best Director, he stands a good chance of taking this award for his Trial of the Chicago 7 script (to add to his Adapted Screenplay Oscar for 2010’s The Social Network), however I’d say Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman is in pole position at the moment.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, The Mauritanian
Analysis: Of Nomadland’s six nominations, four - including this category - are for Chloé Zhao.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: The Croods: A New Age, Earwig & the Witch
Analysis: Soul will easily win here, continuing Pixar’s dominance in this category - though this is actually the first time Pixar has landed two nominations in this field in the same year (with Soul and Onward).

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Another Round (Denmark)
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Collective (Romania)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia & Hervegovina)

My Predictions: 2/5. Oops!
Missed the Cut: Two of Us (France), Dear Comrades! (Russia), La Llorona (Guatemala), Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast), I’m No Longer Here (Mexico)
Analysis: The lone director nom for Thomas Vinterberg secures Another Round’s place as the one to beat in this lineup.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Welcome to Chechnya, Dick Johnson is Dead, Boys State, All In: The Fight for Democracy
Analysis: One year after Honeyland managed the same feat, Collective becomes the second film nominated for both International Feature and Documentary Feature in the same year.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Judas & the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Tenet, Minari, Da 5 Bloods
Analysis: The haunting vistas of Nomadland are likely to edge out the mannered black-and-white visuals of Mank.

BEST FILM EDITING
The Father
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Mank, Minari, News of the World, Tenet, Judas & the Black Messiah

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Tenet

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Mulan, The Midnight Sky, Emma.
Analysis: The only category of its ten nominations where I’d wager Mank is the frontrunner.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Emma.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: News of the World, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, Ammonite

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: The Midnight Sky, Tenet
Analysis: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross score double nominations here with their work on both Mank and Soul (alongside Jon Batiste) - their first noms since winning for 2010’s The Social Network.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Fight For You" (Judas & the Black Messiah)
"Hear My Voice" (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
"Húsavík (My Hometown)" (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Sage)
"Io Sí (Seen)" (The Life Ahead)
"Speak Now" (One Night in Miami)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: “Turntables” (All In: The Fight for Democracy)
Analysis: Diane Warren nabs her 12th nomination with the song from The Life Ahead (she has yet to win). “Húsavik” is the only nominated song deserving of this award, though “Speak Now” seems a more likely winner.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Emma.
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Birds of Prey, The Glorias

BEST SOUND
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Nomadland, Tenet, The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis: Doing away with the separate categories for Sound Mixing and Sound Editing for the first time in decades won’t have too much of an impact on how much Sound of Metal is ahead here.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Love & Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One & Only Ivan
Tenet

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Welcome to Chechnya, Soul, Mank

As for the short film categories, I managed 4/5 in both Live Action Short and Documentary Short, and a measly 2/5 in Animated Short.

On to Phase Two!

The 93rd Annual Academy Awards will be broadcast live on ABC on Sunday, April 25th.