Final 93rd Oscars Predictions
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Last year's acting winners, minus Laura Dern.
The longest and strangest film awards season in history is finally reaching its end with this evening’s presentation of the 93rd Annual Academy Awards! Honoring the best in film from 2020 (plus the first few months of 2021), this year’s batch of mostly excellent nominees proved the global pandemic didn’t stop great cinema from reaching our homes - even if it did prevent us all from viewing them from the comfort/discomfort of movie theaters. While the Academy needed a few more months’ leeway to put everything together, here at CineMunch we need even more time before we can definitively announce our favorites from the year (though we’re both rooting for Nomadland among the Best Picture nominees). In any case, the show must go on, so it's time to double down on some final predictions.
Last year’s Oscars, which feels like an entire lifetime ago, saw the historic crowning of Parasite, the first foreign language film to be awarded Best Picture. A number of narratives are at play among this year’s contenders — after 7 loses, might this finally be Glenn Close’s year? will Chadwick Boseman become just the second posthumous Best Actor winner? how many of the Academy’s 9,000+ members actually cast ballots this year?— but one milestone seems guaranteed as Nomadland director Chloé Zhao looks set to become just the second woman, and first woman of color, to take home the Best Director statue.
As always, there’s a healthy mix of sure-things (Soul has Score all sewn up and, unsurprisingly, Sound of Metal is a lock for Best Sound), tight battles (will it be Promising Young Woman or The Trial of the Chicago 7 in Original Screenplay?), and wide-open question marks (the Best Actress contest is excitingly all over the map).
So settle in, mix yourself a cocktail or two (in lieu of our traditional Oscar Menu, we’ll be sipping Old Fashioneds and snacking on whatever is laying around), and follow along with our predictions below!
BEST PICTURE
The Father
Judas & the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Matt’s Prediction: Nomadland
Alternates: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari, Promising Young Woman
With key wins from the DGA, PGA, Golden Globes, and BAFTAs, Nomadland has remained the one to beat all season. That said, just last year 1917 won all those same awards and was then bested by Parasite for the top Oscar in the end. This year, The Trial of the Chicago 7 has taken home the major prizes that Parasite claimed on its way to that historic win (the SAG award for Best Ensemble and the ACE award for Best Editing), so the Aaron Sorkin historical drama has to be a contender here, even if voters are likely more passionate about a few of the other nominees (namely Minari and Promising Young Woman). And passion matters when members are ranking their choices, which I think will benefit the contemplative indie frontrunner as Nomadland will indeed go all the way.
Matt’s Personal Rankings: 1) Nomadland, 2) Minari, 3) Promising Young Woman, 4) Sound of Metal, 5) The Father, 6) Mank, 7) Judas & the Black Messiah, 8) The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should’ve Been Nominated: Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Nathan’s Prediction: Nomadland
BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
David Fincher (Mank)
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Matt’s Prediction: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Alternate: none
Regardless of which film emerges victorious in Best Picture, Nomadland is assured a win in this category. Chloé Zhao has steamrolled through the season with a near-perfect sweep of not just the key precursor awards (DGA, BAFTA, Globe, BFCA), but also almost every single regional critics group prize as well. She’ll be just the second female director to win in Oscar’s 93 year history after Kathryn Bigelow won in 2010 for The Hurt Locker.
Should Win: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Nathan’s Prediction: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari)
Matt’s Prediction: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Alternates: Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Although I remain (relatively) confident that Boseman’s titanic final performance will ultimately win, it’s worth pointing out that his is the only performance nominated here not to come from a Best Picture nominee (indicating Ma Rainey’s may not have the overall strength to secure a major win against more well-liked competition). Furthermore, the sweep Boseman was enjoying with wins early on from the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and Critics Choice, came to a halt after he was bested by Hopkins at BAFTA and Ahmed at the Indie Spirit Awards. The Father outperformed expectations on nominations morning with key notices in Picture, Editing, and Production Design, and several anonymous Oscar voter ballots have revealed that while many voters think Boseman will win, they ultimately chose Hopkins (who previously won Best Actor in 1992 for The Silence of the Lambs). Though the competition here is tight, it’s nothing compared to the next category…
Should Win: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods)
Nathan’s Prediction: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Matt’s Prediction: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Alternate: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday)
A genuine four horse race (sorry, Vanessa Kirby) with no obvious frontrunner (or maybe 4 equally obvious frontrunners?), this is the most exciting contest of the night and one of the most thrillingly unpredictable acting races in a very long time. Andra Day shocked to win the Golden Globe, Mulligan won the Critics Choice Award and the Indie Spirit Award, Viola Davis took the SAG Award, and McDormand took home the BAFTA. Starring in the likely Best Picture winner gives a big boost to McDormand, but I’d imagine there are many voters who are aware that she already has two Best Actress Oscars (most recently just 3 short years ago). Davis is also a recent winner, having taken the Supporting Actress trophy for Fences four years back, which may impact her odds. Andra Day’s is a debut performance wherein she plays a real person and does her own singing - all traditionally catnip to awards voters, though her film is not well loved and she is her film’s only nomination. Which brings me to Mulligan - a previous nominee (for her breakout in 2009’s An Education) in one of the year’s most discussed films. Though Promising Young Woman has proven divisive to some, its supporters are passionate and I think there will be just enough of them to push her into the lead here and bring her her first Oscar. By the slimmest of margins.
Should Win: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Yeri Han (Minari)
Nathan’s Prediction: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas & the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
LaKeith Stanfield (Judas & the Black Messiah)
Matt’s Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas & the Black Messiah)
Alternate: none
Even if some of Kaluuya’s support gets diluted by co-star (and fellow lead/titular role) Stanfield, he’s still a pretty safe bet and the safest lock of the acting categories this year.
Should Win: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Alan Kim (Minari)
Nathan’s Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas & the Black Messiah)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Olivia Colman (The Father)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
Matt’s Prediction: Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
Alternate: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Once this year’s most wide open field, this race settled on Youn late in the season with recent victories at the SAG and BAFTA awards. Plus, selecting the Korean acting legend may be voters best chance to award the well-liked Minari, a film unlikely to win any of its other nominations. Bakalova did very well throughout the season, particularly for a high-wire, comedic, and mostly improvised performance - not your typical awards fare, though I suspect the nomination is the award for her. Glenn Close could ride sentiment and a healthy overdue narrative to a win for an otherwise reviled film, but it’s more likely she’ll tie Peter O’Toole’s record of most acting nominations without a win (8!).
Should Win: Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Essie Davis (Babyteeth)
Nathan’s Prediction: Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Judas & the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Matt’s Prediction: Promising Young Woman
Alternate: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Having won the WGA and the BAFTA, Promising Young Woman is the favorite - and certainly one of the more ‘original’ scripts in this lineup, which can help - see Her, Eternal Sunshine, Parasite, etc. It might be unwise to bet against the Aaron Sorkin script (he previously won Adapted Screenplay for 2010’s The Social Network), but, while admired, did enough voters really love The Trial of the Chicago 7? Perhaps! But I’ll stick with the one I’d prefer win, which would make writer/director Emerald Fennell the first woman to win a screenplay Oscar since Diablo Cody won here for 2007’s Juno.
Should Win: Promising Young Woman
Should’ve Been Nominated: Palm Springs
Nathan’s Prediction: The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger
Matt’s Prediction: The Father
Alternates: Nomadland
As the Best Picture frontrunner, it makes sense that Nomadland would also pick up a writing Oscar on its way to the top award. And it certainly might, though the film’s blending of actors with real folks and scenarios may be seen more as a director’s achievement and voters may hope to spread the wealth as they work their way down the ballot. With The Father, Florian Zeller expertly adapted his own play for the screen alongside co-writer Christopher Hampton (who previously won this category for 1988’s Dangerous Liaisons), and presents voters with their best chance to award the well-liked and late-peaking dementia drama.
Should Win: The Father
Should’ve Been Nominated: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nathan’s Prediction: Nomadland
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Matt’s Prediction: Soul
Alternate: none
Pixar will effortlessly take their 11th win in this category with Soul (while simultaneously losing for only the 4th time with their other nominee this year, Onward). Wolfwalkers would make a fantastic winner any other year and might’ve given Pixar more of a run for their money in a non-Soul year.
Should Win: Soul
Nathan’s Prediction: Soul
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Another Round (Denmark)
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Collective (Romania)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
Matt’s Prediction: Another Round
Alternate: Quo Vadis, Aida?
Thomas Vinterberg’s Best Director nomination signals that Another Round is the one to beat.
Should Win: abstain
Nathan’s Prediction: Quo Vadis, Aida?
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time
Matt’s Prediction: My Octopus Teacher
Alternate: Crip Camp, Time, Collective
Though not the most timely or “important” of this field, My Octopus Teacher stands out among this crop and has surprisingly emerged as the frontrunner in this competitive category. Time would be the critics’ choice, Collective has the added bonus of also being up for International Feature (a year after Honeyland accomplished the same feat), and Crip Camp has the Obamas behind it (which helped last year’s winner in this category, American Factory). But people seem to really love that octopus…
Should Win: abstain
Nathan’s Prediction: Crip Camp
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Judas & the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Matt's Prediciton: Nomadland
Alternate: Mank
Mank’s black-and-white, old Hollywood visuals will get a lot of votes (and it won the ASC cinematographers guild prize), but I suspect the sunsets and sprawling vistas of Nomadland will take this win with ease.
Should Win: Nomadland
Should’ve Been Nominated: Da 5 Bloods
Nathan’s Prediction: Nomadland
BEST FILM EDITING
The Father
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Matt’s Prediction: Sound of Metal
Alternates: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland
What I see as a very tight two-way race, I’m tentatively sticking with the BAFTA-winning Sound of Metal over the flashier cuts of The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Should Win: The Father
Should’ve Been Nominated: Palm Springs
Nathan’s Prediction: Sound of Metal
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
Matt’s Prediction: Mank
Alternate: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Tenet
The only one of Mank’s ten nominations it’s likely to translate to a win.
Should Win: The Father
Nathan’s Prediction: Mank
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Emma.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio
Matt’s Prediction: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Alternate: Emma., Mank
At 89, Ma Rainey’s costumer Ann Roth would set the record for oldest Oscar-winning woman in history and would add to the trophy she won in this category for 1996’s The English Patient.
Should Win: Emma.
Should’ve Been Nominated: Promising Young Woman
Nathan’s Prediction: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul
Matt’s Prediction: Soul
Alternates: none
A lock.
Should Win: Soul
Should’ve Been Nominated: Tenet
Nathan’s Prediction: Soul
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Fight For You" (Judas & the Black Messiah)
"Hear My Voice" (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
"Húsavík (My Hometown)" (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
"Io Sí (Seen)" (The Life Ahead)
"Speak Now" (One Night in Miami)
Matt’s Prediction: “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)
Alternate: “Húsavík” (Eurovision Song Contest), “Fight For You” (Judas & the Black Messiah), “Io Sí (Seen)” (The Life Ahead)
“Húsavík” is the only one of these five songs to actually be featured within the film it’s from (the other four nominees appear over the end credits to their films), which could certainly give it a leg up. “Io Sí” songwriter Diane Warren is on her 12th nomination in this category without a win, a fact that’s been pushed to voters with each of her recent nominations and she hopes one day will result in a victory. “Fight For You” could continue co-writer H.E.R.’s recent awards streak (having won Song of the Year at last month’s Grammy Awards), but I suspect “Speak Now” and its co-writer/Supporting Actor nominee Leslie Odom Jr. will squeak out the win by a hair.
Should Win: “Húsavík” (Eurovision Song Contest)
Should’ve Been Nominated: “Edgar’s Prayer” (Barb & Star Go to Vista Del Mar)
Nathan’s Prediction: “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Emma.
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio
Matt’s Prediction: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Alternate: Emma.
Should Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should’ve Been Nominated: Birds of Prey…
Nathan’s Prediction: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
BEST SOUND
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
Matt’s Prediction: Sound of Metal
Alternates: none
Formerly split into Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, the sound awards have been combined for the first time in decades. No matter the title, it’s impossible to imagine anything other than Sound of Metal winning this.
Should Win: Sound of Metal
Should’ve Been Nominated: Nomadland
Nathan’s Prediction: Sound of Metal
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Love & Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One & Only Ivan
Tenet
Matt’s Prediction: Tenet
Alternates: The Midnight Sky
The pandemic year shuffled many high-budget, effects-driven pictures to 2021 or beyond, allowing some less popular nominees to work their way into a category typically dominated by blockbusters. Still, as the most widely seen and discussed among this crop, Tenet should be the third winner of this award for a Christopher Nolan film (after Inception and Interstellar).
Should Win: Tenet
Should’ve Been Nominated: Welcome to Chechnya
Nathan’s Prediction: Tenet
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present
Two Distant Strangers
White Eye
Matt’s Prediction: Two Distant Strangers
Alternates: The Letter Room, Feeling Through
Nathan’s Prediction: Two Distant Strangers
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You
Opera
Yes-People
Matt’s Prediction: If Anything Happens I Love You
Alternates: Opera, Burrow
Nathan’s Prediction: If Anything Happens I Love You
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Colette
A Concerto is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha
Matt’s Prediction: A Concerto is a Conversation
Alternates: A Love Song for Latasha, Colette
Nathan’s Prediction: Colette
The 93rd Annual Academy Awards will air live on ABC beginning at 8pm ET.
