2022-2023 Oscar Nominations Reactions
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The nominations for the 95th Annual Academy Awards were unveiled way back on January 24th by Riz Ahmed and Allison Williams. The multiverse comedy-drama-action Everything Everywhere All at Once continued its incredible (and improbable) awards run, leading the nominations with 11 mentions. The biggest shocks came in the competitive Best Actress category (both for who missed and who was included), 2022’s highest domestic grosser Top Gun: Maverick missing a Cinematography nomination, and, more personally, that I did so well on my predictions this year.
I correctly predicted 97/120 of this year's nominees (80.83%), which landed me at the very top of the leaderboard over at GoldDerby for the second time in my prognosticating career (1st place finish of 9,900 participants, baby!). I got the opportunity to chat with some of GoldDerby’s editors following the nominations about my predictions and who we thought was ahead in each race at that time.
Read on for a list of the nominations and my predictions results.
BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
My Predictions: 9/10 (had Triangle of Sadness at #12)
Missed the Cut: The Whale, Babylon
Analysis: The top 8 were set in stone (and just happened to be the first 8 nominees alphabetically), but the battle for those final 2 spots was a close call with Sarah Polley’s critical hit Women Talking and Cannes Palme d’Or winner Triangle of Sadness edging out Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale and Damien Chazelle’s Babylon. Immediately following last year’s nominations, it looked as though The Power of the Dog was unbeatable - so much so that it was difficult to assess which film was even running second at that time. Obviously, things shifted in the weeks leading up to the Oscars and CODA became the industry’s favorite underdog, winning all three of its nominations, including Best Picture. The over-performance of Everything Everywhere with these nominations parallels last season’s race where it’s again tough to discern what film is even running #2 here (Banshees? Fabelmans? Top Gun?), though I suspect EEAAO won’t have an issue maintaining its momentum up until the final envelope is opened.
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Todd Field (TÁR)
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
Analysis: Spielberg nets his 9th nomination in this category, tying Martin Scorsese for second most all time (William Wyler holds the record with 12). Though not entirely an international film (most of it is in English), Triangle of Sadness’ Östlund continues the trend of foreign directors making this lineup (I bet with just a few more days or weeks of campaigning, the All Quiet buzz might’ve pushed Berger into this race instead). If Everything Everywhere is as strong in Best Picture as I assume, then the Daniels likely take this, but ol’ Stevie Spielberg could be a sentimental favorite for his most personal film to date.
BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)
My Predictions: 5/5.
Miss the Cut: Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
Analysis: For the first time since 1935 (!), each of these five nominated gents is a first-time Oscar nominee. Although this fivesome proved easy to predict, the battle over the statue is much harder to predict. Mescal and Nighy are in the just-happy-to-be-nominated camp, but the other three each have a credible path to the win. Though his film is likely the strongest overall player of the three, Farrell is likely running third against the flashier, “bigger” performances of Butler and Fraser. And, honestly, flip a coin to determine the victor - it’s that close.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)
Analysis: This year’s most shocking above-the-line category will make for an excellent in depth book someday with so many narratives at play and how it all shook out. From the category switcheroo Michelle Williams made early in the season (she was seen as the default Supporting Actress winner before she decided to run in the leading field instead), to the absence of the two black actresses who were firmly in this race and expected to place here (Deadwyler in Till and Davis in The Woman King - sigh), to the jaw-dropping last-minute grassroots campaign to net Andrea Riseborough this longshot nomination, there are years’ worth of analysis to dig into where the industry and the Oscars are at as represented by this lineup. As for the winner, the Blanchett vs Yeoh battle we’ve long been expecting will be a true nail-biter up until the very end.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Ben Whishaw (Women Talking), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Analysis: Hirsch nabbed his second nomination in this category with just ~8 minutes of screentime, 42 years after he was last shortlisted for Ordinary People (breaking a record for longest gap between acting nominations). The Banshees boys continue the recent trend of two actors from the same film placing in this category (something that’s occurred in five of the last six years). Quan is one of the few ‘locks’ heading into the ceremony, and deservedly so.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Nina Hoss (TÁR), Claire Foy (Women Talking), Carey Mulligan (She Said), Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion)
Analysis: Bassett might be the first acting winner to represent a Marvel film, especially after nabbing wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, but Jamie Lee Curtis holds a similar industry veteran narrative and is in the film voters liked best (always an asset). Condon has a great chance here too, and could be voters only chance to reward the well-liked Banshees if it falls to Everything Everywhere in its other categories.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Triangle of Sadness
My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Aftersun, Babylon, Decision to Leave, Elvis
Analysis: An excellent lineup, with the added curio that all five of these films were written or co-written by the five directors nominated in Best Director. Banshees could prevent an Everything Everywhere sweep with a victory here, but it will be close between those two films.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: The Whale, She Said
Analysis: Not sure the screenplay was the thing most people loved about Top Gun, but its (semi-surprising) inclusion here speaks to its overall strength. Unless All Quiet is more of a juggernaut than we think, this should go to Women Talking.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Wendell & Wild, My Father’s Dragon, The Bad Guys
Analysis: The smartest thing Netflix and Guillermo del Toro did with Pinocchio was add del Toro’s name to the title, giving it a leg-up in this otherwise strong field.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Decision to Leave (South Korea), Saint Omer (France)
Analysis: With its impressive 9 nominations, including a Best Picture mention, All Quiet will be impossible to beat.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Descendant, Moonage Daydream, Bad Axe, The Territory, Last Flight Home
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Elvis
Empire of Light
TÁR
My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Top Gun: Maverick, The Batman, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Fabelmans
Analysis: Elvis cinematographer Mandy Walker is just the third woman DP nominated here, and hoping to become the first to win. This branch’s voters refreshingly looked past much of this season’s biggest players to nominate their favorite achievements of the year - including passing over expected frontrunner Top Gun and granting the only nominations for Bardo and Empire of Light.
BEST FILM EDITING
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Fabelmans
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Batman
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: The Woman King, Living, Corsage, The Fabelmans
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Avatar: The Way of Water
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Applause" (Tell It Like a Woman)
"Hold My Hand" (Top Gun: Maverick)
"Lift Me Up" (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
"Naatu Naatu" (RRR)
"This Is a Life" (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: “Ciao Papa” (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio), “Stand Up” (Till), “Carolina” (Where the Crawdad Sings), “New Body Rhumba” (White Noise)
Analysis: Okay, this is getting a tad ridiculous now - Diane Warren earns her 14th nomination in this category (and her sixth year in a row!) for a film that barely registered or even exists (Tell It Like a Woman??). Having won an honorary Oscar last fall, I thought maybe this branch was through defaulting to her to fill out a slot in Original Song, but I guess not! Despite the star power of Lady Gaga (Top Gun), Rihanna (Black Panther), and David Byrne/Mitski (EEAAO), the tune from RRR is seen as the one to beat.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Babylon, Blonde, Crimes of the Future
BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Thirteen Lives, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
As for the short film categories, I managed 3/5 in both Documentary Short and Live Action Short, and 4/5 in Animated Short.
The 95th Annual Academy Awards will be broadcast live on ABC on Sunday, March 12th.
