Final 95th Oscars Predictions
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Three of last year’s acting winners
It’s time to finally put a bow on 2022 with tonight’s presentation of the 95th Annual Academy Awards! Honoring the best cinematic achievements of last year, this year’s Oscars will thankfully return to presenting all 23 categories live on air. Jimmy Kimmel returns for his third stint as Oscars host, and you can catch all the action on ABC beginning at 8pm ET.
Last year’s awards saw the Apple-bought little indie that could CODA break all sorts of Oscars stats to take home wins from all three of its nominations, including Best Picture. This year’s indie underdog also happens to be a stealth-surprise industry juggernaut, with A24’s Everything Everywhere All at Once absolutely dominating the awards circuit this season. The question (probably) isn’t if it will win Best Picture, but rather, how many awards will the absurdist, multiverse comedy-drama collect? Since the Academy expanded their Best Picture lineup in 2009, no Best Picture winner has taken home more than 5 awards (films like Gravity and La La Land have won more, but failed to also garner the top prize). I’m predicting Everything Everywhere to nab six Oscars, but as few as two or as many as nine feels possible!
In other categories, there’s the usual mix of sure-things (might as well engrave Avatar: The Way of Water on that Visual Effects Oscar right now), close contests (excitingly three of the four acting categories are total toss-ups!), and wide-open races (who on Earth is winning Best Score??). We’re Team Everything Everywhere here at CineMunch and look forward to seeing one of 2022’s best films get crowned in multiple categories!
Settle in, mix yourself a cocktail or two (in lieu of our traditional Oscar Menu, we’ll be alternating between chocolate martinis and Avatar: The Glass of Waters), and follow along with my predictions below!
BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Matt’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front
This lineup is a pretty solid group of ten, representing a good cross-section of what the industry had to offer in 2022: box office behemoths (the Avatar and Top Gun sequels are two of Hollywood’s biggest hits of all-time), critical darlings (Martin McDonagh’s acerbic The Banshees of Inisherin, Todd Field’s return from a 16-year absence with Tár), more traditional awards bait (Spielberg’s autobiographical The Fabelmans, Sarah Polley’s powerful Women Talking), international titles (Germany’s WWI Netflix epic All Quiet on the Western Front, Cannes Palme d’Or winner Triangle of Sadness), a flashy biopic (Baz Luhrmann’s maximalist Elvis), and then there’s Everything Everywhere All at Once. One of the boldest, most original, films to break out at the box office (becoming indie studio A24’s highest grossing film ever), Everything Everywhere was met with an enthusiastic response almost a full year ago and was able to sustain that passion and momentum all season, becoming this year’s mightiest awards titan. With victories from every major industry guild (producers, directors, screenwriters, actors), on paper the stats dictate that Everything Everywhere cannot lose - of the four films of the modern Oscar era to also collect wins from PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG, each also went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. Although the Golden Globes went a different direction (awarding The Fabelmans in Drama, and Banshees in Comedy) and All Quiet nearly swept the BAFTAs, anything other than a Best Picture win for Everything Everywhere would be one of Oscar’s biggest upsets ever.
Matt’s Personal Rankings: 1) Everything Everywhere All at Once, 2) Avatar: The Way of Water, 3) Women Talking, 4) TÁR, 5) The Banshees of Inisherin, 6) All Quiet on the Western Front, 7) Top Gun: Maverick, 8) Triangle of Sadness, 9) The Fabelmans, 10) Elvis
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Woman King, Babylon
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Todd Field (TÁR)
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Matt’s Prediction: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Alternate: Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
The Daniels are likely to become just the third filmmaking duo to take this honor, though there is a slim chance voters are feeling nostalgic and wanting to reward the legendary Steven Spielberg with a third Director statue for his most personal project to date.
Should Win: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)
Matt’s Prediction: Austin Butler (Elvis)
Alternates: Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
And here we come to the first of three acting categories that are a true nail-biter! Though his film is a stronger overall contender and he’d have my vote, Colin Farrell is likely running third in this race next to the transformative (and “bigger”) performances of Butler and Fraser. Brendan Fraser has had one helluva comeback narrative propelling him to the front of this race, and with a recent victory at the SAG Awards, he could definitely eke out the win here. That said, The Whale has proved divisive and underwhelmed with nominations, missing expected mentions in Picture and Adapted Screenplay. Elvis, on the other hand, has broad support from the Academy (8 nominations total) and, most crucially, is a Best Picture nominee. That combined with wins at the Globes and BAFTAs, plus the awards catnip of mimicking a real-life famous figure (which has worked recently for Rami Malek, Jessica Chastain, Renee Zellweger, Gary Oldman, etc, etc), I think puts Austin Butler just sliiiiiiightly ahead in the end.
Should Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Jack Lowden (Benediction)
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Matt’s Prediction: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Alternate: Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
Even closer than the Best Actor battle royal, the Blanchett vs Yeoh showdown will have me on the edge of my seat until whoever reads that envelope announces a winner (it won’t be last year’s Best Actor winner as is tradition, given that that would be Will Smith). In Blanchett’s corner: the Golden Globe (Drama), the Critics Choice award, the BAFTA, just about every major critics prize, and she’s the face of a well-loved film that is unlikely to pick up a win in any other of its nominated categories. In Yeoh’s corner: the other Golden Globe (Comedy), the Screen Actors Guild award, the Indie Spirit, and she stars in this year’s Best Picture frontrunner. Voters of late have tended to want to spread the wealth, which could assist Blanchett, but sweeps and records broken at both the SAG and Indie Spirit Awards for Everything Everywhere indicate that passion extends beyond just the top prize. It’s also tough to ignore that Cate already has two Academy Awards (a stat that most voters surely must be at least tangentially aware of), and, embarrassingly, Yeoh would be only the second actress of color to ever win this category in the 95 year history of the awards (after Halle Berry in 2002). I’ll give Yeoh the edge given her film’s strength, but this one is about as close as it gets - fingers crossed we get another result like the 1968 race when Katharine Hepburn and Barbra Streisand tied!
Should Win: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Matt’s Prediction: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Alternate: none
The only acting race this year that’s all sewn up, Ke Huy Quan has got this in the bag.
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Matt’s Prediction: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Alternates: Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Another pretty wide-open field that could go a number of different ways. Most would argue (and I’d agree) that Angela freaking Bassett should have an Oscar, and earlier in the season it looked like her coronation was inevitable with wins at the Globes and Critics Choice Awards. Then Kerry Condon won the BAFTA, which, although the win was expected with the overseas crowd, shifted the winds. If Bassett was indeed the one to beat, surely a SAG win was in the cards - but another under-rewarded industry vet upset her there when Jamie Lee Curtis took one of Everything Everywhere’s record 4 wins from that group. Each of those three ladies has an equal chance here, though I’ll say the overdue veteran campaign for Bassett and Curtis cancels the other one out and Condon is able to come up the middle with what could possibly be her film’s only win.
Should Win: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Judith Ivey, Jessie Buckley, or Claire Foy (Women Talking)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Triangle of Sadness
Matt’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternates: The Banshees of Inisherin, TÁR, The Fabelmans
Martin McDonagh won the Globe and BAFTA for his Banshees script, though he will likely suffer the same fate as he did in 2018 when his Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri screenplay was bested by the more inventive and original Get Out in the final lap. I don’t see Everything Everywhere winning Picture, Director, and at least one acting award and then losing this category, so I’m pretty confident in my prediction that the Daniels add to their awards haul with this prize.
Should Win: TÁR
Should’ve Been Nominated: Aftersun
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Matt’s Prediction: Women Talking
Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front, Living
All Quiet is the stronger Best Picture nominee in this race (with at least one assured win from its impressive nine nominations), which could mean its out front in this category, though voters may think of the war film as more of a visual achievement than a writing one. Sarah Polley is also a known and well-loved filmmaker (and actress), with a previous nomination in this category, so I’m hopeful her work is recognized with a well deserved win here.
Should Win: Women Talking
Should’ve Been Nominated: Fire Island
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Matt’s Prediction: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Alternates: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Marcel has its fans (myself included) and the Puss in Boots sequel was peaking in popularity (and box office dollars) during the voting period, but Guillermo del Toro can safely add some room on his mantle for another Oscar with his stop-motion Netflix version of the classic tale Pinocchio, adding to the statues he won for 2017’s Best Picture winner The Shape of Water.
Should Win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Matt’s Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
Alternate: none
With nine overall nominations, including a coveted Best Picture nomination, All Quiet on the Western Front is one of the safest bets of the night in this category.
Should Win: abstain (haven’t seen all five yet, though I am an All Quiet fan)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Matt’s Prediction: Navalny
Alternates: Fire of Love, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
A tight race that could conceivably go to any of the five nominated docs, the timely Navalny has a slight edge.
Should Win: All That Breathes
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicles of a Handful of Truths
Elvis
Empire of Light
TÁR
Matt's Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
Alternate: Elvis
Elvis DP Mandy Walker just became the first female cinematographer to win the American Society of Cinematographers Guild award and she would be the first to win the Oscar (she is only the third woman ever nominated in this category), but I suspect the epic war film narrowly takes this.
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should’ve Been Nominated: Avatar: The Way of Water
BEST FILM EDITING
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Matt’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should’ve Been Nominated: Babylon
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Matt’s Prediction: Babylon
Alternate: Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Babylon
Should’ve Been Nominated: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Matt’s Prediction: Elvis
Alternate: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Catherine Martin, Baz Luhrmann’s wife and collaborator, won this award previously for both Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby, so a win for Elvis would be her third. Both times she prevailed in this category, she also won Production Design, and though I’m not predicting Elvis to go 2/2 in the design fields, I do think she’s got the advantage over Black Panther’s Ruth E. Carter (who won this award for the first film in 2019).
Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should’ve Been Nominated: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Matt’s Prediction: Babylon
Alternates: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Fabelmans, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Another toss up! Babylon is the most music forward of the films listed here (composer Justin Hurwitz picked up a pair of Oscars for another Damien Chazelle Hollywood film with La La Land), though Babylon may face an uphill battle as the only nominee here that’s not also in Best Picture. All Quiet features an effective and unsettling musical theme and it might clean up in many of its tech races, or we could start to see a true sweep for EEAAO if it nabs this. Sentiment could also push 90-year-old legend John Williams to a sixth Oscar for his work on The Fabelmans.
Should Win: Babylon
Should’ve Been Nominated: Women Talking
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Applause" (Tell It Like a Woman)
"Hold My Hand" (Top Gun: Maverick)
"Lift Me Up" (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
"Naatu Naatu" (RRR)
"This Is a Life" (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Matt’s Prediction: “Naatu Naatu” (RRR)
Alternates: “Life Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick)
Some powerhouse musicians populate this lineup with Rihanna (“Lift Me Up”), Lady Gaga (“Hold My Hand”), and Mitski/David Byrne (“This Is a Life”) all contending here. They are each likely to be bested by the energetic and rousing “Naatu Naatu”, which has a leg up on the competition by being the only tune actually used within its film as opposed to an over-the-end-credits feature.
Should Win: “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick)
Should’ve Been Nominated: “New Body Rhumba” (White Noise)
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Matt’s Prediction: Elvis
Alternates: The Whale, All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: The Batman
Should’ve Been Nominated: X
BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Matt’s Prediction: Top Gun: Maverick
Alternates: Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should’ve Been Nominated: Babylon
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Matt’s Prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water
Alternate: none
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should’ve Been Nominated: Nope
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
Matt’s Prediction: Le Pupille
Alternates: An Irish Goodbye, The Red Suitcase
Should Win: The Red Suitcase
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Matt’s Prediction: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
Alternates: My Year of Dicks, Ice Merchants, An Ostrich Told Me…
Should Win: Ice Merchants
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
Matt’s Prediction: The Elephant Whisperers
Alternates: Stranger at the Gate, Haulout
Should Win: Haulout
The 95th Annual Academy Awards will air live on ABC beginning at 8pm ET, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel.
