With the Oscars just a week away, it’s past time I went back and assessed the nominations and how I fared with my predictions! The nominations for the 96th Annual Academy Awards were unveiled back on January 23rd by Zazie Beetz and Jack Quaid. As expected, Christopher Nolan’s megahit Oppenheimer led the pack with 13 nominations in just about every eligible category (it likely would’ve tied the record of 14 if the visual effects branch had shortlisted the film). There weren’t too many big surprises among the nominee list, certainly nothing as big as last year’s Andrea Riseborough nomination - though many would argue the misses for Greta Gerwig in Best Director and Margot Robbie in Best Actress for Barbie were shocking (not in the least to this longtime Oscar predictor).

I correctly predicted 93/120 of this year's nominees (77.5%), which landed me in the top 3% of prognosticators over at GoldDerby (347th place finish of 10,893 participants). A very respectable finish, though when I’ve tasted victory and outright won twice (including just last year) and finished within the top twelve 3 others times in the past decade, the accomplishment feels less sweet.

Read on for a list of the nominations and my predictions results.

BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

My Predictions: 10/10
Missed the Cut: nothing?
Analysis: These 10 were so locked up all season long, that I was correctly predicting 8 of the 10 since August, 9 of them since October, and this exact lineup of 10 since early December. And it’s a great group of nominees - half of them are in my top seven favorite films of the year, even! Much like it was difficult to even get a read on what film was the likely runner-up in that #11 spot at the nominations stage, it’s tough to even guess what might be running second for the win as Oppenheimer probably has this race all sewn up.

BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Celine Song (Past Lives)
Analysis: This was a super competitive category, so I’m most proud of nailing this lineup 100% this year. Regardless of who else joined Nolan in this group, this will very easily be his year.

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

My Predictions: 5/5.
Miss the Cut: Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Analysis: Domingo, Murphy, and Wright nab their first much-deserved nominations this year, while Giamatti earns his second and Bradley Cooper ups his total to 12 nominations with his work on Maestro this year, though he very likely will remain winless. The win will likely be quite close between Cillian Murphy if voters are all-in on Oppenheimer and beloved industry vet Paul Giamatti.

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Margot Robbie (Barbie), Greta Lee (Past Lives)
Analysis: Annette Bening was the surprise here, netting her fifth career nomination (which I’ll pretend is for her incredible, but overlooked work in 2016’s 20th Century Women instead). The Stones - Emma and Lily Glad will be battling it out to the end here, though I’d give the edge to Gladstone.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Charles Melton (May December), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Analysis: Brown rode a wave of stronger than expected voter enthusiasm for the late-breaking American Fiction to earn his first Oscar nom, while the other four are no strangers to the Oscar race. Downey Jr. is locked in for his first win in what will be a very good night for Oppenheimer.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Julianne Moore (May December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari)
Analysis: Though Gerwig and Robbie were snubbed in their respective categories for the juggernaut that was Barbie, America Ferrera added to the film’s eight total mentions with her surprise bid here. Randolph will handily take this for the much loved The Holdovers, a film unlikely to be rewarded in any other categories.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Saltburn, Air
Analysis: The Holdovers or Past Lives would be strong winners, but it seems the momentum is with international hit Anatomy of a Fall for the win. I’m most happy that May December gets this nomination, as it was one of last year’s best films.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Killers of the Flower Moon, All of Us Strangers
Analysis: Killers of the Flower Moon nabbed a healthy ten total nominations, though rather surprisingly blanked here - a shame as it was a very strong adaptation. The Zone of Interest was the likely beneficiary of the Killers miss, though is probably the only one of these nominees without a true shot at victory. This will be a tight race, though perhaps the well publicized snubs for Barbie propel it to the winners circle if there’s enough enthusiasm.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Analysis: The first Spider-Verse film won this category in 2019 and the follow-up is hoping to be the first non-Disney sequel to win. Legendary Japanese director Hayao Miyazaki was one of this category’s first winners with 2002’s Spirited Away, and he’s hoping for a bookend with The Boy and the Heron, possibly his final film.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: The Taste of Things (France), 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine), Fallen Leaves (Finland)
Analysis: France has to be smarting seeing that Anatomy of a Fall was a big Oscar player and an almost assured nominee here, as they selected the non-nominated The Taste of Things as the country’s submission. Never bet against a Best Picture nominee in this race, so Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is far out front.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

My Predictions: 2/5.
Missed the Cut: American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: The Zone of Interest

BEST FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Barbie, Maestro, The Zone of Interest, Past Lives

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: The Zone of Interest, Asteroid City, Maestro, Saltburn, The Color Purple

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Maestro, The Color Purple, Wonka

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
American Fiction
Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

My Predictions: 4/5.
Missed the Cut: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest, Barbie, Saltburn, Elemental

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"The Fire Inside" (Flamin’ Hot)
"I’m Just Ken" (Barbie)
"It Never Went Away" (American Symphony)
"Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People" (Killers of the Flower Moon)
"What Was I Made For?" (Barbie)

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: “Road to Freedom” (Rustin), “Dance the Night” (Barbie), “Keep It Movin’” (The Color Purple), “Can’t Catch Me Now” (The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes)
Analysis: Like clockwork, songwriter Diane Warren earns her 15th nomination in this category (and seventh in a row!) for a film that barely registered or grabbed any other nominations (Flamin’ Hot). Barbie easily might’ve taken up three of these slots had the Academy not altered their rules to limit films to two nominations max in this category, but regardless it’s likely Billie Eilish taking her second Oscar for “What Was I Made For?”.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

My Predictions: 5/5.
Missed the Cut: Killers of the Flower Moon, The Last Voyage of the Demeter, Napoleon

BEST SOUND
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

My Predictions: 3/5.
Missed the Cut: Ferrari, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Barbie, The Killer

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator
Godzilla: Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon

My Predictions: 2/5.
Missed the Cut: Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Society of the Snow, Poor Things, Rebel Moon

As for the short film categories, I managed 3/5 in both Documentary Short and Animated Short, and 4/5 in Live Action Short.

The 96th Annual Academy Awards will be broadcast live on ABC on Sunday, March 10th.