Final 2023-2024 Oscar Nominations Predictions
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Ho ho ho and happy holidays! It’s finally Christmas Oscar season!
The 96th Annual Academy Awards nominations will be revealed on Tuesday morning January 23rd by Zazie Beetz & Jack Quaid beginning at 8:30am ET (you can view a live stream of the announcement via the Oscars website).
The nominations will honor the best cinematic achievements from 2023. Just as ‘Barbenheimer’ dominated the culture upon release last summer, expect those two juggernauts (Barbie and Oppenheimer), plus Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon and Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things, to heavily feature into just about every category at this year’s awards. All four of those films are likely to pick up double-digit nomination totals, though I’m predicting a few surprise misses for each…well, except Oppenheimer, which has to be considered the odds on favorite to take home the big prize.
As usual, I still have a lengthy list of 2023 titles I want to catch up to before finalizing my own personal list of favorites for the year, but the expected Oscar lineup seems likely to be a very solid collection of (mostly) great films that I won’t quibble with too much (even if I’d drop something like Barbie or Maestro for my beloved May December).
Read on for my final nominations predictions!
BEST PICTURE
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Barbie
The Holdovers
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro
American Fiction
The Zone of Interest
Past Lives
Alternates: The Color Purple, May December, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, All of Us Strangers, Origin
This year’s Best Picture race has settled so strongly into the above list of ten that it’s difficult to even ascertain which film is at #11 (not to mention which of the predicted ten would fall out should there be a surprise inclusion of an alternate). I’ve had this exact roster for months, though partly that has to do with the calendar: by the time ‘Barbenheimer’ opened in July, six of these ten had already been screened (either in release or at festivals) and given a stamp of approval from the mix of industry, critics, and audiences that signal the passionate support needed to net a nomination. In fact, I’ve only made two small adjustments to my predicted ten since that fateful ‘Barbenheimer’ weekend six entire months ago: adding American Fiction after it won the Audience Award at last fall’s Toronto Film Festival (a highly correlative award to an Oscar Best Pic nom), and dropping The Color Purple after it underperformed with many of the guild awards and failed to net a Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture Musical or Comedy (a group that historically loves musicals and expanded their nomination slates to six, so it proved a telling miss). Adding to the confidence in my predicted lineup: the Producers Guild of America nominated these exact ten films a few weeks ago, and though they usually opt for more commercial picks (they are producers after all), their selections of critically adored international films Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest sealed the deal.
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Alternates: Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Celine Song (Past Lives)
Nolan is the only true lock - the directors’ branch often zigs when you expect them to zag, so ‘lock’ is not a word one can use too frequently with this group. Scorsese and Lanthimos are the next most likely contenders, though I do have a tiny inkling that Yorgos could be the shock exclusion tomorrow morning (but not enough to predict his snub). There’s a long list of acclaimed international directors getting nominated here of late and that bodes very well for Cannes winner Justine Triet and Cannes runner-up Jonathan Glazer. Their inclusion then comes at the expense of celebrated American auteurs Alexander Payne (who rarely misses with this branch) and Greta Gerwig. Payne would be a smart prediction (especially after how well The Holdovers performed with the recent BAFTA nominations), and there’s no doubt Gerwig’s Barbie was one of the major accomplishments of the year, but I’ve never envisioned either nabbing a mention with this particular branch this year - call it a hunch.
BEST ACTOR
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Alternates: Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
Only six leading men realistically have a chance here (sorry, Andrew Scott!), and I’m joining the consensus in predicting that it will be previously awarded DiCaprio who misses the final five.
BEST ACTRESS
Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Margot Robbie (Barbie)
Alternates: Greta Lee (Past Lives), Annette Bening (Nyad), Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
A stacked year for leading ladies, though similarly to Best Actor, it seems the race has winnowed down to just six true contenders. My predicted five haven’t missed a beat all season - the only hiccups among these five were Hüller missing a SAG nomination (which was expected given their typical aversion to international titles) and Gladstone blanking at the BAFTAs (which can partially be explained by their convoluted juried nomination system for acting and directing categories). I’m really hoping to hear Greta Lee’s name called, but can’t quite bite the bullet on predicting her when this fivesome is so strong. Should she sneak in, I’ve long thought it would Robbie who dropped out, though on nomination eve my suspicion is that Mulligan may be the surprise omission here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Robert DeNiro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Willem Dafoe (Poor Things)
Alternates: Charles Melton (May December), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers), Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
The three R’s (Robert, Ryan, and the other Robert) have led this field all season and can expect the lovefest to continue with Oscar, leaving two spots open. The Supporting Actor category has seen two performers nominated from the same film for an incredible four years running - a stat that might well continue this year with the fellas from Poor Things. Ultimately I think at least one between Ruffalo and Dafoe get in, but can’t decide which is strongest, so I’ll throw my hands up and predict both. Justice for Charles Melton though.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
Julianne Moore (May December)
Rosamund Pike (Saltburn)
Alternates: Jodie Foster (Nyad), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), America Ferrera (Barbie)
This year’s most difficult major category to nail down a prediction for - outside frontrunner Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Oppenheimer’s Emily Blunt (remarkably still seeking her first Oscar nom), I’m not confident in any of the remaining actresses. Despite her film’s underperformance, Danielle Brooks is probably safe (though might possibly end up with The Color Purple’s only nomination). After that, who knows! When in doubt in the supporting categories, it’s best to go with a performance from a likely Best Picture nominee, assuming that the overall support for a film will trickle down into other categories, giving coattails to the included actors. In theory that then benefits either Barbie’s America Ferrera (who I think is a longshot at best) or The Zone of Interest’s Sandra Hüller (adding to her likely Best Actress bid for Anatomy of a Fall would net her the rare achievement of two nominations in the same year). Jodie Foster, a two-time winner who hasn’t been nominated since 1994’s Nell, has been a strong player throughout the season, but ultimately I’m being reckless and opting for two actresses I’d like to see crack this field in Moore and Pike, even if I’m likely to be wrong.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
May December
Saltburn
Alternates: Maestro, Air
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Barbie
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Alternates: The Zone of Interest, All of Us Strangers
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Taste of Things (France)
The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Alternates: Fallen Leaves (Finland), Perfect Days (Japan), Tótem (Mexico), Io Capitano (Italy), Four Daughters (Tunisia), Godland (Iceland), The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Alternates: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Robot Dreams, Suzume, Wish
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
20 Days in Mariupol
American Symphony
Beyond Utopia
Four Daughters
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
Alternates: The Eternal Memory; Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie; Bobi Wine: The People’s President; 32 Sounds; A Still Small Voice; Stamped From the Beginning; Apolonia, Apolonia; To Kill a Tiger; In the Rearview; Desperate Souls, Dark City, & the Legend of Midnight Cowboy
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Maestro
The Zone of Interest
Alternates: El Conde, Saltburn, Barbie, Napoleon, The Color Purple
BEST FILM EDITING
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
Anatomy of a Fall
Poor Things
Alternates: Barbie, Maestro, The Zone of Interest, Past Lives, Ferrari
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Alternates: Napoleon, Asteroid City, Maestro, Saltburn, The Color Purple
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Napoleon
Alternates: Maestro, The Color Purple, Wonka
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny
Alternates: The Zone of Interest, Barbie, Saltburn, Elemental, The Boy and the Heron, American Fiction, American Symphony
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)
”Dance the Night” (Barbie)
”Road to Freedom” (Rustin)
”It Never Went Away” (American Symphony)
”The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot)
Alternates: “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), “Keep It Movin'” (The Color Purple), “Can’t Catch Me Now” (The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songs & Snakes), “Am I Dreaming?” (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse)
Though there are three songs from Barbie that were submitted and ultimately made the longlist for this category, Academy rules stipulate that a max of only two songs per film can be nominated. Expect Billie Eilish’s “What Was I Made For?” to place no problem, but then I’m foolishly going out on a limb to predict that the other Barbie nominee to get in will be Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night” and not the widely expected, Critics Choice winning song “I’m Just Ken”. Less foolishly, I caved and included the song from Flamin’ Hot because songwriter Diane Warren almost literally never misses with this branch.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Maestro
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Golda
Society of the Snow
Alternates: Killers of the Flower Moon, The Last Voyage of the Demeter, Napoleon, Beau Is Afraid, Ferrari
BEST SOUND
Oppenheimer
Maestro
Ferrari
The Zone of Interest
Killers of the Flower Moon
Alternates: Napoleon, Barbie, The Killer, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, The Creator
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
The Creator
Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Society of the Snow
Alternates: Napoleon, Poor Things, Godzilla Minus One, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Rebel Moon
The 96th Annual Academy Awards will be held Sunday, March 10th, 2024.
